UFC 116 Predictions
Posted by Tommy Hackett on July 2nd, 2010
Say what you will about Brock Lesnar and Shane Carwin.
Say that they have only a handful of fights, that they perhaps don’t merit discussion with all time greats like Fedor Emelianenko, that the split screen interview segment hyping the bout recently for the TUF finale was the worst in history. Go ahead. Maybe I’ll join you (comfortably on my couch, and far away from them).
But they’ve made UFC 116, eminating live tomorrow night from the MGM Grand in Las Vegas, a huge event. Despite the loss of Wanderlei Silva (who pulled out due to injured ribs), the show is sold out and Dana White predicts a million PPV buys. Two of the biggest and baddest in our sport’s short history are set like planets waiting to collide, and it looks like the whole world is watching. So who’s coming out on top? Read on…
Total-MMA’s two most prolific writers are among the MMA enthusiasts who are abuzz about this event. So, I’m turning over the focus to them. Offering predictions this week are Jacob Lawton (JL) and Bryan Belangia (BB). As always, our predictions are for entertainment only, so don’t blame us if you lose your lease. Oh, and credit to Tracy Lee for the weigh-in pic.
Main Event Heavyweight Title Bout: Brock Lesnar (4-1) vs. Shane Carwin (12-0)
JL: Brock makes his second official defense of his UFC Heavyweight Belt since winning it from Randy Couture back in late 2008 against perhaps the singularly most feared heavyweight around. Carwin is a very different type of fighter to all of Lesnar’s previous opponents – he is a hungry, powerful giant of a man with hugely heavy hands to go with a solid wrestling background. The two have many similarities – Lesnar also hits hard and possess some magnificent body slams and double legs, but the key to this fight may simply come from Carwin’s size. The biggest man Lesnar has fought thus far has been Heath Herring – and he is a past his prime kickboxer. Carwin is an entirely different ball game, his knockout power and speed bringing elements that Lesnar has not dealt with in this combination – and Lesnar’s chin has looked a touch suspect in the past. Frank Mir had him wobbled early in the second round of their second fight, and he isn’t exactly renowned for his C-4 packed hands. Therefore, I expect Lesnar to get shut down on the early takedown, before being knocked into oblivion after he foolishly decides to trade with Carwin. TKO for Carwin in the 1st.
BB: This is a very interesting match and probably the one I’ve anticipated the most this year just ahead of the Shogun/Machida rematch. It’s tough to call. Finally Brock has a challenger that will be physically much tougher to handle and move around than the guys he’s fought to this point and also with outstanding wrestling. I have serious doubts about Lesnar’s ability to take a punch. It’s plain to see in the fights he’s been in so far, he doesn’t deal well with being punched in the face. He was swimming when Mir caught him with that knee in the second round of their second fight and immediately took the fight to the ground. The key will be whether or not he’s able to get the fight to the ground before Carwin can impose his will standing. I don’t see Brock finishing Carwin on the ground simply because Carwin is very big, very strong, has solid wrestling and frankly, Brock has been out of the game for quite a while now and rust will play a part in this as well. Brock certainly can control the fight and take a decision but five rounds is a long time to avoid getting punched and I think Carwin will land one eventually. I’m going with Carwin with a TKO in round three.
Middleweight Bout: Yoshihiro Akiyama (13-1) vs. Chris Leben (20-6)
JL: Chris Leben is a brave man. Of that there is no doubt. Not many fighters would jump in on short notice to fight a man of Akiyama’s calibre just 14 days after their last fight. So kudos for Chris to that, but, though he has a solid guard and dangerous boxing, he hasn’t got anything on Akiyama’s superlative wrestle-judo, and the Japanese knows how to survive on his feet. Combine this with the obvious wear-and-tear and fatigue that Leben must be suffering; I can’t see him winning this. He’s tough and game, and he will hang with Akiyama for all three rounds, but ‘Sexyama’ will take a dominant unanimous decision.
BB: It’s definitely not the Silva match that I was really looking forward to but it will do. I was as hyped as anyone to see Akiyama in the UFC when he first signed and fought at UFC 100 a year ago, but his debut was flat. He really struggled with Alan Belcher and was gifted a decision in my opinion. I had Belcher winning that one and he was certainly the more impressive fighter in that match. I’m not much of a Leben fan at all, I just don’t think he brings that much to the table, but Akiyama hasn’t had a fight in a year and his training camp was short from what I was told. That’s not a good combination. I’m going with the upset in this one with Leben taking a decision.
Welterweight Bout: Chris Lytle (28-17) vs. Matt Brown (11-8)
JL: I’ll make no bones about it; this is probably going to be fight of the night. Both of these men always go out and put it all on the line. Brown’s unimpressive 11-8 record is more so when you consider he’s gone 4-2 in the UFC, and his well rounded game, focused on his wrestling but with solid all round skills to go with it, makes him a threat to anyone. However, Lytle is the more dangerous man – a former pro boxer who has become a master of jiu-jitsu from the guard, and he has at least one of every type of the UFC’s bonuses – Submission, KO and Fight of the Night. For Brown it’s a problem; I can’t see him passing Lytle’s guard, and on his feet he’s out of his depth. But Brown isn’t called ‘The Immortal’ for nothing; he is not easy to stop. Therefore, I’ll take Lytle via a close, exciting unanimous decision.
BB: This is going to be the best fight on the card. Almost every one of both of these guys’ fights are entertaining. They both leave everything in the cage and matching them up against each other was a great idea. Lytle is always willing to stand and trade punches and that’s dangerous for Matt Brown but what gets overlooked is Lytle’s ground game. He’s very capable on the ground, as is Matt Brown so we could see some great ground exchanges as well as them throwing bombs standing. It’s a tough fight to call and I’m guessing by the end of it that nobody will view either of them as the loser. I’m going with Lytle in a decision.
Light Heavyweight Bout: Stephan Bonnar (11-7) vs. Krzysztof Soszynski (21-9-1)
JL: The UFC tries to right past wrongs here as it matches up ever-popular company man Bonnar against the nigh untypeable Soszynski. The first fight ended in Soszynski’s favour – a doctor’s stoppage after a cut opened on Bonnar after an accidental head butt. This time around we’re praying for a cleaner finish, but there seems to be no way for Bonnar to win this. Soszynski is just the better, more well rounded fighter. He has a dangerous top submission game, knockout power to go with some efficient stand up and some solid clinch work encompassing trips and takedowns. Bonnar has bags of heart, a solid chin and some decent kickboxing. No contest. Soszynski will take it via a first round TKO, and hopefully a much fairer one this time.
BB: Tough fight for Bonnar here but most fights are going to be tough for him now. He’s just the same fighter he always was. Still very tough and very hard to finish but very plodding and slow although he does utilize some crazy TKD kicks now and then and is underrated on the ground. Krzysztof is just faster and more precise and I think just too much for Bonnar to handle. I know people wanted to see this rematch because of the way the first fight ended, but in my opinion Soszynski didn’t fight a good fight in the first one and didn’t stick to his game-plan and still was winning the fight decisively. If Soszynski is on top of his game I think he stops Bonnar in this one, but Bonnar is tough so I’ll call this one a decision for Krzysztof.
Lightweight Bout: George Sotiropoulos (12-2) vs. Kurt Pellegrino (16-4)
JL: Aussie ace Sotiropoulos continues down the road to title contention against the always exciting New Jersey man Pellegrino. Pellegrino has good wrestling and some decent jiu-jitsu, and a heart that would put a horse to shame. The same could be said of Joe Stevenson, who Sotiropoulos out grappled en route to a workmanlike decision. He has decent stand up and a knack for scoring opportunistic takedowns, too, and that is bad news for Pellegrino, as his opponent is at his happiest lording over his opponent from top control – he passes guard beautifully, and has some decent ground and pound and good submissions. Pellegrino is tough, and submission-savvy, so he’ll survive to see the judges score the decision for Sotiropoulos.
BB: Kurt is very similar to Joe Stevenson, who Sotiropoulos already faced with the exception of being slightly faster and better at submissions. Kurt has very good wrestling, but I’m riding the George bandwagon and just think his ground skills are so good and he’s constantly improving and will be able to transition from whatever Kurt throws at him. This should be a very good and competitive fight as well but I think George will catch him on the ground so I’m going with Sotiropoulos with a submission in the second round.
July 3rd, 2010 at 1:30 pm
Nabard Fitness System: The Combat Athlete’s Latest Choice in Fitness
by S. Brian Hood
Incorporating both ancient wisdom and contemporary understanding of the physical potential of the human body, Master Marco Safakhoo has developed an innovative approach to physical fitness known as “Log Training.” Initially designed to meet the fitness demands of martial arts masters, log training has evolved into a revolutionary approach to fitness all its own. However, it remains an integral part of martial arts training for practitioners of Safakhoo’s martial art “Nabard.”
It was in 1983 that Marco Safakhoo established his martial art Nabard in the United States. He sought to develop a fitness regimen that would address the deficiencies of existing fitness strategies and meet the physical needs of his martial arts students. Safakhoo knew that there was more to building strength than simply building bulk. Looking to the past, he asked himself what it was that made ancient warriors of his native land Persia such formidable adversaries. Moreover, he reflected on his experiences as a martial artist, noting that it was not necessarily those who were the most muscular who were the strongest fighters. Persian warriors, without the availability of contemporary innovations in weight lifting, were nevertheless able to conquer vast stretches of Europe and Asia. Their many successful campaigns would not have been possible were it not for their superior fighting tactics and a correspondingly developed training regime which imparted to them the physical strength and endurance necessary to best their foes. It was their raw approach to fitness that was so integral to the complete warrior. Log Training is Safakhoo’s modern approach to raw physical fitness training and represents the culmination of ancient wisdom and our current understanding of the human body.
State of the art exercise equipment, for all its virtues, nevertheless is lacking in that it has been designed for building strength in the most comfortable way possible; it acquiesces to the public demand for convenience. One example of this is the centered handles on most exercise equipment, which may make motions less cumbersome, but at the cost of efficacy. It forces the person into artificial movements, focusing on a limited range of muscle groups, mostly neglecting stabilizing muscles, and is, in a sense, an affront to the human body’s remarkable potential. The body is capable of degrees of motion which exceed those permitted by restrictive contemporary exercise devices and it warrants a fitness regime that does justice to the body’s capabilities as well as the physical demands of martial arts. Enter Safakhoo’s contribution to the fitness industry: Log Training.
Log Training is but one of several innovations Safakhoo has designed to supplement his Nabard Combat System, including the octopus-like Universal Training Dummy (UTD) and the Triflex Stretching Device, both of which he holds patents for. Log Training is a total fitness system whose intended audience is anyone looking to gain muscle definition, strength, endurance, and desires a fun and revolutionary approach to physical fitness specifically tailored to the needs of combat athletes.
The basic instruments of Log Training are the “long log” which is a four-foot cylinder of either wood or aluminum construction with recessed off-center handles, the “short log” which is roughly eighteen inches in length with fastened off-centered handles, and the “club” which is a roughly 24 inch cylinder with a cylindrical grip affixed at one of the two flat ends. Safakhoo currently has patents pending for the log training devices and their mechanics.
Traditional isometric gym exercises lack the isotonic and isokinetic movements essential to the needs of martial-athletes. Safakhoo’s solution was to create raw natural fitness by fusing cardio, isotonic, isometric, and isokinetic muscle contractions into a fluid rhythmic regimen. Unlike exercise machines, there are no belts, chains, or machinery standing between the person and the training device. The off-centered handles create a degree of resistance that cannot be mimicked by conventional devices, including free weights. The placement of the custom grips allows for safe maneuverability while preventing the body from retreating to its comfort zone. Consider the long log with its recessed off centered handles: as the person curls the log, no only must he or she work against the weight of the log, as with each motion, one must also resist the rotational force of the log, keeping it from rotating in one’s hands; hence, the practitioner must engage various stabilizing muscles in addition to biceps and forearm muscles. That the devices are not tied to machines makes them, unlike exercise machines, adaptable to any range of motion of which the human body is capable. The only boundaries that limit the applications of Log Training are those imposed by the person; the devices themselves impose no motion restrictions. Safakhoo as developed an extensive vocabulary of movements designed with the aim of capitalizing on the versatility of the logs and engaging the entire body. The exercises do double duty in both building strength and enhancing coordination.
The Log Training exercise regime is specifically designed to work stabilizing muscles. The thought here being that any athlete is as good as his stabilizing muscles are developed. For example, the weightlifter requires strong stabilizing muscles to maintain balance, the hokey player engages stabilizing muscles when he strikes the puck in order to keep the stick under control, and the same for the golfer: well developed stabilizing muscles keep the athlete from throwing his or her body with the device. Now let us consider the combat athlete in particular.
For a strike, whether it is a punch or a kick, to be effective, it must be under absolute control. Unless the striking arm or leg is under control, the body will be pulled in the direction of the strike, throwing the body off balance. When striking with the fist, for example, one must be able to strike through the opponent and withdraw the arm quickly, and the same goes for the legs and kicks. It is the stabilizing muscles that are engaged in controlling these strikes. Blocks, too, require control from stabilizing muscles, especially in a martial art like Nabard where strikes and blocks are interchangeable. A skilled combat athlete should be able to strike in any direction; hence, the combat athlete requires an exercise regimen and device that can accommodate the entire range of motions so that maneuvers in any direction are controlled, rapid, and strong. Existing widely available exercise tools do not meet these demands. For example, kettle bell exercises, despite their virtues, do not mimic the motions of martial arts techniques. Moreover, kettle bells are not very forgiving devices and using them puts one at risk of serious injury such as shoulder dislocation. Log Training Devices, on the other hand, were designed for the combat athlete and this is evident in their construction and in the particular exercises. While there is always a risk of injury associated with exercise, Log Training Devices are much more forgiving that kettle bells or free weights since typically one uses lighter weights in Log Training exercises than one uses in typical dumbbell exercises; this is because the focus is on developing the stabilizing muscles and muscle groups employed in combat techniques, such as contorting dodges which demand considerable abdominal strength and speed. Additionally, ballistic motions, such as those associated with kettle bell exercises, are not emphasized in Log Training, which helps to minimize the risk of injury.
For more information visit the websites below. Dedicated Log Training participants include men, women, body builders, combat athletes, and adults of all ages and from all walks of life and fitness backgrounds.
On the web:
http://nabardfitness.com/
http://nbardcombatsystems.com
July 3rd, 2010 at 2:25 pm
Thanks for sharing, Master Safakhoo! Usually I delete bizzare spam messages like yours, but I’ll be damned if you don’t have the coolest name I’ve ever heard! Mazel tov!
July 4th, 2010 at 6:56 am
JL: 2/5
BB: 3/5
Beware the Brock, I guess. Amazing comeback by the big man, and he revealed a new facet of his game with that submission. Hopefully this will quieten the Lesnar haters among the MMA community. Carwin needs to work on his gas tank.
And all credit Leben, that was an awesome performance considering the war he had with Simpson a few weeks back - not only to finish Akiyama but to finish him via submission - not easy to do to a Judo black belt. Akiyama has looked mediocre in his UFC tenure thus far - a razor thin desicion win over Alan Belcher and a loss to Chris Leben? Hardly the hallmarks of a future title contender. Turns out he really does need that grease.
Soszynski got caught, no two ways about it, and the UFC can happily ride off Bonnar’s age old popularity for at least one more fight.
Lytle proved that he isn’t one for quitting and Brown proved that many of us hacks underestimated him by putting the veteran under some serious pressure and almost tapping him, but Lytle did the ineveitable and came back with a nice submission of his own.
Sotiropolous was nice and unsuprisingly brilliant. Solid stand up and great grappling, he just outclassed Pellegrino. Looking forward to his next fight already. No reason for Kurt to be downhearted - he had Georgie in more trouble than most of his opponents in recent memory with that third round knockdown. He’ll come back strong, but he does seem to have settled into a gatekeeper role.
Prelims note: So THAT’s why Schaub got to the TUF 10 final. He looked very impressive against Tuscherer.
July 4th, 2010 at 11:05 am
Nice wrap-up. You forgot, TH 0/5 because I didn’t bother with any predictions for this one. I liked how you guys broke everything down and went into detail nicely.
I haven’t gotten to the main event yet, but I really enjoyed Georgie vs Kurt too. Got to love that classic boxing, and some nice jiu-jitsu too, moving around to threaten the pass and set up strikes. Sometimes you don’t need to go for the submission so often to put on a BJJ clinic.
Which reminds me, it’s great to see submissions coming back into focus in MMA, for me anyway. Enough UltiSloppyKickboxing Championships.