UFC 111 Predictions
Posted by Tommy Hackett on March 27th, 2010
Pictured: Georges St-Pierre and Dan Hardy face off at the weigh-ins for UFC 111
Tomorrow night, ZUFFA continues their manic Spring schedule in New Jersey with UFC 111, with Pound-for-pound entrant Georges “Rush” St-Pierre making his fourth defense of the UFC Welterweight title, this time against a massive underdog in Dan Hardy. Backing that are two top heavyweights fighting for the interim championship, with champion Brock Lesnar still inactive due to health issues.
It’s a show with a lot to offer: first, a chance to watch a pound-for-pound entrant in St-Pierre, and second, an excellent fight in what may be the UFC’s deepest division. On the other hand, the former bout is a mismatch, and the latter is still something of a letdown due to the absence of titlist Lesnar. Also, UFC 111’s undercard isn’t the best — particularly with Thiago Alves forced off the show after failing a pre-fight physical.
It’s an up and down show, but certainly worth a look if you’ve got the PPV loot to spare…
As always our predictions are for entertainment purposes only, so don’t sue us if you go broke and can’t afford to photoshop away the tattoos which you fear may provoke reactions from the Chinese government. You know who you are. Contributing today are Total-MMA editor Tommy Hackett (TH) and staff writer Jacob Lawton (JL).
Main Event Welterweight Title Bout: Georges St-Pierre (19-2) vs. Dan Hardy (23-6, 1NC)
JL: As mentioned in Dan Hardy: Rule Britannia! yesterday, the challenger here is a colossal underdog. Despite all the positive comments that the likes of Matt Serra have given concerning the youngster, no one in their right mind will bet against GSP here. Since his upset KO loss to Matt Serra, GSP is on a six fight win streak, all against then top ten fighters in his weight class. Sure Hardy is also on a winning streak, with seven victories under his belt and four stoppages. Since his last loss was a DQ following an accidental groin strike, some may say the last time he really lost was mid-2006. But none of this changes the fact he is going in with a man who is one of the top three pound for pound fighters in the world, a superlative wrestler with stellar striking. No amount of compliments will change my mind until I see Hardy in action tomorrow night, and, despite me really wanting Hardy to pull something special off, I expect GSP to score a submission victory in the championship rounds.
TH: Yeah, Hardy’s in over his head and it won’t be pretty. I see a few strikes leading to the takedown and then a brutal ground-and-pound to commence. I don’t see Hardy lasting as long as Penn — GSP’s strikes from the mount end it midway through the third.
Co-Main Event Interim Heavyweight Title Bout: Frank Mir (13-4) vs. Shane Carwin (11-0)
JL: A fight to be named the top contender is hidden under this interim belt duel, as the winner will almost certainly face Brock Lesnar come summer for the one UFC title. Carwin has dynamite for fists and great wrestling, making him basically a clone of Lesnar, perhaps with even heavier hands. However, he is yet to face a submission expert on the ground. As Mir showed in his first fight against Lesnar, inexperience on the ground against BJJ black belts leads to a sudden sharp pain in your extremities followed by your ‘0’ going. Unfortunately for Carwin, I can also see ring rust also being a factor. He’ll dive for a takedown after Mir nullifies him standing, before ending up on the wrong end of a Mir submission some time in the middle of Round 1.
TH: I’m waffling on this one. Mir obviously has more ways to win, but Carwin’s way is scary quick. Still, I think Mir’s improved standup, which he briefly exhibited against Cheik Kongo, will help him survive or even land a bomb here — and then to lead to the submission. Yesterday, Wanderlei Silva predicted Mir by leglock in his video blog, and who am I to doubt the Axe Murderer? Mir, kneebar, round two.
Lightweight Bout: Kurt Pellegrino (20-4) vs. Fabrício Camões (10-4-1)
JL: Two upper-mid level Lightweights face off here. It’s Camoes’ second UFC fight, his first being a bore draw against Japanese legend Caol Uno, while Pellegrino is coming off a three fight UFC win streak since a submission loss to Nate Diaz. Unfortunately for ‘Batman’, however, Camoes is a submission specialist to his wrestler. I can see the New Yorker scoring an early takedown, before being nullified on the ground for most of the fight. When he’s tired, Camoes will swoop for an armbar in the third.
TH: Yeah, he’s got some excellent jiu-jitsu but Pellegrino really seems to shine anytime he can outwrestle his opponent. Fabrício Camões, a Royler Gracie black belt who is undefeated in his last seven, including a draw with Coul Uno, would seem up his alley. Look for the two to stand and trade a bit but Pellegrino to take the decision when he grounds “Morango” out.
Welterweight Bout: Jon Fitch (24-3, 1NC) vs. Ben Saunders (8-1-2)
Ben Saunders has dug the UFC out of a hole after stepping in on short notice following the departure of original Fitch opponent Thiago Alves, who had to pull out due to a ‘brain irregularity’ (best of luck to Alves during any treatment or recovery time he requires). Unfortunately, discretion would probably have been the better part of valour in this fight, as his rangy striking and vicious clinch work will prove no match for Fitch’s dominant wrestling, and it’ll be Fitch who grinds his way to a dull unanimous decision win — perhaps leaving Saunders wishing he’d stuck with original opponent Jake Ellenberger.
TH: I agree here. I thought Fitch looked a bit tired and tentative last time out, but even if it happens again I don’t know if Saunders can really capitalize. Fitch can probably take him down and keep him there long enough to rack up some points with the judges and earn a decision.
Lightweight Bout: Jim Miller (16-2) vs. Mark Bocek (8-2)
JL: Two submission specialists go at it in the opener in a bout that looks almost impossible for Bocek to win. While Miller has refined his game and developed some solid striking and wrestling, Bocek is still very much a pure jiu-jitsu fighter. Miller will avoid the ground, and the smaller Bocek will be outboxed as Miller cruises to a Unanimous Decision victory. Also — a shout out to Rodney Wallace in the prelims, for bringing THE most awesome nickname in MMA back to the UFC. “Shonuff the Master”, we salute you.
TH: I’m surprised to see this on the main card over names like Nate Diaz (fighting Rory Markham) and Ricardo Almeida (making his debut at welterweight against Matt Brown). I agree that Miller may bring more on paper to today’s UFC and a Miller decision win seems likely as any. Hopefully we get a surprise here.
March 27th, 2010 at 12:03 pm
Sorry I was late!
GSP/Hardy
GSP is the most well rounded MMA fighter in the world today on top of being probably the best pure athlete. Only in a world where the champion has already embarrassed the best of the division does a guy like Dan Hardy get a title shot but that’s the world we live in. He can’t hang with GSP. I look for GSP to take the fight to the ground early and often where Hardy will have no answer for his rapid guard passes into side control and probably mount where Hardy will give up his back and get choked out. GSP by submission within the first three rounds.
Mir/Carwin
Very tough fight to call simply because we haven’t seen Carwin against the top of the division and we don’t know how he’ll react if the fight hits the mat. He might unleash the most vicious ground and pound we’ve ever seen or he might just stupidly give up position to Mir and get caught in a submission. We just don’t know. Carwin is a huge guy with a ton of power but Mir has all the experience. I don’t see this fight going to a decision. Mir by submission in the second.
Pellegrino/Camoes
Pellegrino is the more physical of the two and combined with his wrestling I think he’ll be able to control position throughout the fight. I look for Pellegrino to wear him down and grind out a decision or possibly find himself in a position late in the fight to get a TKO via ground and pound.
Fitch/Saunders
What a difference this fight is compared to the one that was supposed to happen. I would have loved to see Fitch/Alves and Ellenberger/Saunders. Actually I’d still much rather see Ellenberger/Saunders because of the pace that both of them fight at. 99% of the predictions you will see for this fight are for Fitch to grind out a decision but I think Saunders is up to the task. He’s got long limbs and is dangerous on the ground as well as throwing kicks and knees standing up. I think he catches Fitch in the striking game early before Fitch is able to get it to the ground. Saunders by TKO.
Bocek/Miller
Similar fighters here with Miller clearly better in every aspect in my mind. Miller by decision. And yeah, how do you not have Matt Brown on the main card? A guy who makes every fight he’s in exciting, and going up against Ricardo Almeida. To be honest with you, I’m more interested in the preliminary card as a whole over the live card.
March 28th, 2010 at 4:59 am
JL: 3/5
BB: 3/5
TH: 4/5
Carwin catches us all out and I had too much faith in Camoes’ BJJ. Pellegrino-Camoes was a fun fight, and Hardy-GSP was great just for the show of heart from my lad. Shocked me made it to the final bell, just a pity he couldn’t've won at least one round. The amount of times he could’ve tapped and didn’t was absolutely stunning. Saunders-Fitch and Miller-Bocek were dull, and we can confirm that yes, Shane Carwin is a BEAST.
March 28th, 2010 at 2:01 pm
Forget him, that BEAST kept me from perfect night!!
Palhares is suspended 90 days– he probably wouldn’t be fighting again in that time anyway.
I enjoyed both prelims. In fact, Almeida vs Diaz would be a great fight.
Fightmetric stats for the main event are up… and ugly. But props for making the final bell.
March 28th, 2010 at 6:41 pm
I enjoyed the prelims and am definitely excited for Carwin/Lesnar. You guys notice the blatant hype/lying about Carwin’s size though? 6′5″? Mir is 6′3″ and was clearly the taller of the two. In terms of spending $55 for a ppv event, I’d say it was sub-par. Losing Fitch/Alves hurt the event as a whole but I still enjoyed it. My Saunders prediction didn’t pan out but that was more me exercising some wishful thinking.