Last week, I asked myself who exactly is excited about tomorrow’s UFC 109 card. I got my answer yesterday, as one of our new writers, Jacob Lawton, sent along his predictions for it. According to Jacob, it’s PPV-worthy “just for the value of seeing two UFC legends going head to head.” Me, I’m not so sure. To be fair, I wouldn’t pay for Dan Severn vs. Royce Gracie 2 in 2010, either.

But, I might catch it at a bar. How’s that for a ringing endorsement? Ugh…

Our predictions and analysis follow. As always, these are for entertainment use only.

Main Event, light heavyweights: Randy Couture (17-10) vs. Mark Coleman (16-9)

TH: Two guys in their mid 40’s headline a Pay-Per-View, and it’s time to party like it’s 1999, and they were both still on top of the MMA world. And you know, they may surprise and get back there. I didn’t expect much out of Couture’s bout with Mike Van Arsdale — and that bout’s great wrestling sequences actually earned it recognition as one of the best fights of… wow, that was 2005. Maybe I’m the one getting old. Anyway, watch for this bout to be similar to that one, if a bit slower. (sigh) I think Coleman will eventually earn a takedown, but Couture’s focus on submissions could eventually prove key. I like Couture with a choke, round two.

JL: This is only main event for nostalgia value. Not for entertainment, or anything title related. Fine, both men are coming off victories, but victories against men who have always been mired in the UFC midcard: Stephan Bonnar and Brandon Vera aren’t exactly names associated with greatness. Before that, both fighters lost to Brazilian superstars: Coleman to Shogun Rua, and Couture to Minotauro Nogeuira.

With both men over 45, cardio is obviously going to be a problem going in. At least, you’d think that, but Randy Couture went three highly physical rounds with Big Nog and three slightly less physical rounds with Brandon Vera and barely looked winded. Coleman, however, looked decidedly tired towards the end of his fight with Shogun: some argue that Coleman was on top until the third round when Shogun caught the tired veteran for the TKO. He also resorted to lay and pray during his third round with Bonnar. Couture’s easily on top, here, in my opinion.

The other big factor will be wrestling, the go-to discipline for both fighters. In this Coleman may be better, but at the rest of the game, Couture can outmatch his fellow hall of famer. He’s a better striker and he has better jiu-jitsu. Thus, I’ll take Couture by 3rd round TKO over a tired Coleman.

Middleweights: Nate Marquardt (29-7-2) vs. Chael Sonnen (23-10-1)

JL: The winner here gets the winner of the middleweight title bout between Victor Belfort and Anderson Silva, and for me this bout is a touch one sided. Sonnen, who, in my opinion, is a solid but unspectacular fighter facing Marquardt, who is not only one of the nicest guys in MMA, but also one of the most dangerous. Stellar wrestling that matches, if not betters, Sonnen’s own credentials, and heavy hands, as demonstrated against Demian Maia last year. For me this can only end one way, with a cautious Sonnen out pointed by Marquardt en route to a Unanimous Decision.

TH: I don’t think Sonnen is in Marquardt’s league at all. First round T/KO, with some punches on the mat sealing the deal for Nate.

Welterweights: Mike Swick (13-3) vs. Paulo Thiago (9-1)

JL: A solid fight in the prodigiously deep welterweight division, Swick, who last his #1 contender bout to Dan Hardy last year, is looking to rebound against Thiago, himself just back to winning ways after following his loss to Jon Fitch with a workmanlike decision over Jacob Volkman. There is no doubt that Thiago is a very talented fighter, and his win over Koscheck back at UFC 95 proves his potential. Conversely, I think Swick, like Dan Hardy who defeated him, is a solid fighter with good all round skills, but not championship material. I can see the kickboxer being taken to the mat Thiago getting the sub or ground and pounding his way to a first round stoppage.

TH: I’m not nearly as excited about this bout as Jacob. For some reason I find Mike Swick totally forgettable, even in his big wins (I’m struggling to even remember a Swick fight since about TUF 1) — but I agree he’s a solid pro all-around. He can probably avoid a big punch while getting a few shots in, and negate the Brazilian’s jiu-jitsu ground game and earn a decision here.

Middleweights: Demian Maia (10-1) vs. Dan Miller (11-2)

JL: Two men looking to rebound off losses to top competition, Maia to Marquardt via brutal knockout, and Miller to Sonnen via hard fought decision, this fight seems rather harsh on Miller. Miller, another man who can truly be listed as a ‘Mixed Martial Artist’ rather than a fighter from a specific discipline, is being matched up against one of the most deadly submission artists in MMA history. Assuming that Maia doesn’t try to stand with Miller like he did with Marquardt, this should be an early, first round submission.

TH: Yeah, I hear Miller just got his BJJ black belt, but I see your point. At his best, Maia imposes his jiu-jtsu better than anyone in MMA right now — and I don’t think Miller is ready for him. Maia by triangle, round one.

Welterweights: Matt Serra (9-6) vs. Frank Trigg (17-7)

JL: Both former championship contenders, now just put on this card to add the ever fun smack talk element, this is the definition of a ‘can fight’, with both these men unlikely ever to rise to the giddy heights of championship fights as they did earlier in their careers. Unless Serra lands a Hail Mary shot in the opening seconds, I can see Trigg using his superior wrestling and basic knowledge of jiu-jitsu to grind out a decision win.

TH : No way is this a “can fight.” I thought Serra probably did enough to beat Hughes last time around. Plus, there’s a good story here. Old guys like me remember Trigg’s controversial loss to Serra’s sensei Renzo Gracie at Abu Dhabi… and Lordy, that was what, eleven years ago? Have I mentioned it’s tough getting old yet? Anyway, I think Serra’s got more left than Trigg. Watch for him to get the takedowns, bang it out, and for Trigg to hang on to lose by decision.

So yeah, I’m not as big on this show as some, but I’m sure it will have its moments. The UFC may air an undercard bout or two. With any luck, we could see the first UFC win by a Gracie since Royce beat Kimo about sixteen years ago. Oh man. Back to the rocking chair for me…