UFC 107 Predictions
Posted by Tommy Hackett on December 12th, 2009
It’s another big fight night tonight, as Memphis, TN hosts the UFC lightweight title bout between BJ Penn and Diego Sanchez, so it’s time for another round of predictions from yours truly. In my last effort, I predicted the correct winner for all four headlining bouts of UFC 105, although nothing really seemed to happen the way I expected. You’ve got to love that — these big MMA shows always offers something new to learn. As BJ remarked after his historic victory over Coul Uno (the bout which led to his first title shot in 2002), “I love this game!”
As always, I offer predictions on the night’s four biggest bouts and my picks are for entertainment purposes only. Thanks to Tracy Lee of Combat LifeStyle for the weigh-in pics. Despite distractions from all the guys needing to disrobe to make weight, Tracy nonetheless does an excellent job again. Now, on to business:
Main Event, for the UFC Lightweight Championship: BJ “The Prodigy” Penn (champion) vs. Diego “The Nightmare” Sanchez: I’ve been looking forward to this bout and it’s great to see it finally come to fruition. I think Sanchez, one of the fighters who struggled to make his bout’s limit last night, looks like a new man at lightweight, aggressively comining more classic jiu-jitsu to his powerful wrestling and improved striking game. But can he cope with “The Prodigy?” No one applies Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu to MMA more effectively than Penn, and the likes of Rob Kaman and Freddie Roach have described him among MMA’s best strikers as well. There is a certain irony that despite Sanchez’s improvements in a myraid of technical skills, I believe he will struggle as Penn establishes a basic jab in this fight. “The Nightmare” probably will muster a takedown eventually, but watch for Penn to survive and eventually become the first to defeat Sanchez by stoppage. Prediction: Penn, T/KO, round four.
Pictured: Frank Mir poses at yesterday’s weigh-ins
Frank Mir vs. Cheick Kongo (heavyweights): As at UFC 105, the title bout will be featured alongside a nice matchup of two excellent heavyweights. This time we find the jiu-jitsu stylist in Mir, appearing more powerful than ever at a lean 265, looking to rebound from his beating at the hands of UFC Champion Brock Lesnar against the feared striker Kongo. Mir, who will enter the cage 20 pounds heavier than he did against Lesnar, always comes off arrogant but I don’t think he’s arrogant enough to try and match strikes with the Frenchman. Watch for him to weather Kongo’s early storm, which will probably punctuated by low knees, and eventually pull Kongo to the mat where he’ll get a submission — the thought here is that we’ll keep with the theme and the end will come with a basic armbar. Prediction: Mir, submission, round two.
Kenny Florian vs. Clay Guida (lightweights) This is an interesting bout, but with both guys turning in plodding performances recently, not one I’m terribly excited about. Florian, now being billed as a Muay Thai expert by UFC despite his long history as an aggressive Brazilian jiu-jitsu stylist, showed enough wrestling against Penn to stall the champion out a few rounds, but little else. Guida has gone from a wild and aggressive wrestler with crazed transitions, to one who is more more apt to slowly wear down his opponent. Who wins? I’d love to say it’s going to be the one who offers a return to form, but unfortunately I think it will be the guy who decides to be more boring. Watch for Guida to weather any standup from Florian, and eventually pull off an upset with a dull ground and pound attack. Prediction: Guida, decision.
John Fitch vs. Mike Pierce (welterweights): Fitch is an excellent all-around fighter who is just a step behind the welterweight champion and this looks like a “stay busy” fight for him, as Vancouver, WA native Pierce just seems a bit overmatched here. This actually reminds me a bit of Fitch’s earlier pairing with another native of the Pacific Northwest, Chris Wilson. Pierce strikes me a solid fighter, but I don’t see him having the technique that Wilson exhibited to go the distance with Fitch — who I believe will eventually stop him with strikes on the mat. Prediction, Fitch, T/KO round two.
December 13th, 2009 at 7:12 am
Outcomes correct 4/5, method correct 2/5, timings correct 0/5. Good job?
December 13th, 2009 at 3:29 pm
kongo looked real bad last night, did he even hit mir?
December 13th, 2009 at 9:09 pm
Kongo didn’t look good, but Mir’s boxing has also improved.
Florian too, actually. I think Ken has always been underrated as an athlete, probably due to his gawky appearance as much as anything. Guida really isn’t in his class.
So-so night for me Ken, but hey, better than some. Maybe we’ll go head-to-head in 2010
December 14th, 2009 at 12:16 pm
Up for that, buddy. WEC 45 at the weekend, or Dynamite !! on NYE… just post these topics a bit earlier, I’m UK based so posting your pickems an hour before event start is like 2am for me.