Singing a New Tune: Why Miguel Cotto is Going to Beat Manny Pacquiao Tonight
Posted by Tommy Hackett on November 14th, 2009
Miguel Angel Cotto is hours away from entering a Las Vegas ring an almost three-to-one underdog against Manny Pacquiao in their catch-weight bout at 145 lbs. To the Puerto Rican’s chagrin, it seems many find it a foregone conclusion that the night will end with Pacquiao earning a knockout victory at his expense. In fact, Pacquiao himself is reportedly so confident that he has scheduled a concert performance directly after the bout, where he will sing material from his own two record albums at Mandalay Bay.
Unfortunately for the Filipino’s supporters, I think Pacquaio will be singing the blues instead of his beloved ballads, as heard here (painfully) on Jimmy Kimmell Live…
Why? Perhaps we’re simply due for an upset in boxing. Or, perhaps there’s something else at work. In my article last month, The Only Winner, I described both Cotto and Pacquiao as “what the fight game should be all about.” What I left out, because it didn’t seem relevant (and because it shouldn’t be) is what they aren’t. Miguel Cotto is not a lounge singer, an actor, or a politican; and neither is Manny Pacquiao. The difference, illustrated by Pacquiao’s bizzare scheduling, is that only one of the two seems to know this.
Don’t believe me? As in all things in life, you can ask George Foreman:
“When I faced Ali, Frazier and Norton both had beaten Ali, and I had knocked them out pretty easily. So when I faced Ali, I had that confidence, and you think I surely can beat this guy. So I know the feeling, and I think that will happen to Pacquiao.” George Foreman, to BoxingScene.com
Much is also being made of how Cotto’s recent performances include close bouts with the likes of the little-known Joshua Clottey, while Pacquaio was scoring dominating knockout victories over household names like Oscar De La Hoya and Ricky Hatton. But those of us who have watched Clottey in action are well aware of his prowess, and that even the likes of Antonio Margarito don’t look terribly good against him. In fact, that very same Margarito may be more relevant to this bout than one would first assume. His now-controversial win over Cotto remains the only blemish on Cotto’s record. Think about that. Cotto’s only loss came at the hands of a full fledged welterweight… hands that were likely dipped in plaster which he was caught with in a later bout against Shane Mosley. Can Pacquiao, who remains basically a blown up junior lightweight, be able to do the same? I’m not so sure.
Further, Pacquiao’s last two big wins are etched in our minds, but really, how relevant are they here? Cotto will be the undeniably first world class welter to fight Pacquiao, and possibly the only world class fighter over 130 lbs. on he has faced. Many of us were never been sold on Hatton as a top guy and we all know the dehydrated zombie that lumbered around the ring vs. Pacquiao last year bore no resemblance to the Oscar De La Hoya who sat at or near the top the boxing world for years.
What is more etched in my mind than either victory? During the broadcast of Pacquiao’s victory over Oscar De La Hoya, HBO’s Jim Lampley quoted from Pacquiao trainer Freddie Roach as saying Team Pacquiao’s foray into the welter division is only for this fight. His exact quote: “We aren’t fighting Margarito.” Ah, there’s that name again. Roach would later recant, but maybe he was right the first time. In this bout has made a furor over weight issues, calling into question the professionalism of both Cotto and his trainers. Is this his honest opinion, or is bluster… or even desperation?
He could have every reason to be desperate, and it won’t take long to find out. We’ll know right away in the opening rounds if Cotto can handle Pacquiao’s speed enough to establish a jab and begin a body attack. If he can’t, if Cotto leaves himself open to straight lefts and uppercuts as he did early in his encounter with Zab Judah, the pundits could well be proven right with an early KO for Pacquaio. But if Cotto can (and with Cotto’s eventual wins over the likes of Judah and Shane Mosley in mind, the bet here is that indeed he can) expect Cotto to stop Pacquiao late or earn a lopsided decision victory.
It will be a victory for a man who has been badly underestimated… and it might just be a victory for good taste in music, too. If I’m at a victory party tonight, I’m a lot happier hearing one of the salsa tunes that Cotto favors for his ringwalks (here he uses Marc Anthony’s sublime salute to Puerto Rico, “Preciosa”) than any more of Pacquiao’s warbling. But hey, suit yourself — and enjoy the fights.
November 14th, 2009 at 3:25 pm
The difference I see is in the way both fighters prepare for this fight. Manny is getting ready for another day at the office, but Cotto is training for a fight. Big difference. I think Manny will learn some tough lessons tonight.
November 14th, 2009 at 9:46 pm
I’m with you, I think Cotto’s chances are so much better than anybody is giving him credit for.
November 15th, 2009 at 2:12 am
Really, guys?
You didn’t think Manny would be way too fast for Cotto?
November 15th, 2009 at 2:28 am
Don’t quit your day job son. Paco stole what little soul was remaining.
November 15th, 2009 at 2:03 pm
Actually, I think if anything was made clear last night, it’s that no man will ever take the soul of Miguel Angel Cotto.
The speed deficit was too much, though. Hey, hindsight’s 20/20.
I’m proud of him — and proud to be a fan.
November 16th, 2009 at 1:31 pm
daym… That was a good fight until 5th or 6th round when all cotto did was retreat and landed a couple of power punches then taking more of a beating. In the first couple of rounds I thought Cotto was a great match for Manny but it looked like Manny was evaluating him and after that Manny released his speed and power.
Now that’s over…Freddie Roach wanted Mayweather? I think mayweather would win not b/c he fights better but b/c he would do the same game plan that shut down marquez. Throw a punch retreat, throw a punch retreat…