Predictions: UFC 104
Posted by Tommy Hackett on October 24th, 2009
Tonight, MMA fans will be treated to UFC 104, or day 154 of the Machida era if you prefer, emenating from the Staples Center in Los Angeles, California at 10 pm EST.
It’s always a pleasure to watch “The Dragon” at work, but tonight’s undercard is weak, and it has been made even less relevant as several fighters missed weight yesterday. On the plus side, the co-main features two of our only hopes for elite American MMA heavyweights who pass drug tests.
It’s not the best of the year, but… it ain’t bad either.
As always, I offer predictions on the night’s top four bouts and my predictions are for entertainment purposes only. Thanks to Tracy Lee of Combat LifeStyle for the weigh-in pic.
Main Event, for the UFC Light Heavyweight Championship: Lyoto “The Dragon” Machida (champion) vs. Mauricio “Shogun” Rua Despite what Marc says, I don’t see any advantage for Rua other than possibly size. No way is he catching Machida with a lumbering lead left hook as he did in his knockout of an over-the-hill Chuck Liddell. I expect the quicker and more precise Machida to pick his shots and pick Rua apart. Maybe it will go a while, if Machida feels any sympathy for his countryman a la Anderson Silva. But, maybe not. Remember Machida’s last bout against a Brazilian went only one round. This may be the most one-sided light heavyweight title defense since the late Evan Tanner (RIP) was tossed aside by Tito Ortiz. My pick: Machida by T/KO, round two.
Co-Main Event: Ben Rothwell vs. Cain Velasquez (heavyweights) Both these guys have slipped under my radar when I gave up on the heavyweight division a while back, but they’re actually quite good. Rothwell enters this bout with a 30-6 MMA record as a classic Militech-trained all-around fighter with a wealth of experience, including a competitive bout against Andrei Arlovski earlier this year. The former NCAA All-American wrestler Velasquez has used a slick ground-and-pound — aided in his training by the likes of Dave Camarillo — to earn his 6-0 MMA record. It’s a tough call here and I think the (-350) betting line is insane. Velasquez indeed strikes me as the better athlete; but at 239 lbs, he’s giving up a lot of weight to a guy who is said to cut 20 lbs. to make the heavyweight limit. Still, I think Velasquez will be able to get his takedowns and top control here, continuing his progress towards a heavyweight title shot. My pick, Velasquez by decision.
Spencer Fisher vs. Joe Stevenson (lightweights): Two good, but not great, lightweights go at it here. Fisher is the better striker and also has a solid ground game which has earned him several wins by triangle choke. But if the better wrestler Stevenson plays one this smart, he should be able to take Fisher down repeatedly and work his game. Fisher is tough and probably too adept at submissions to be finished. My pick: Stevenson by decision.
Anthony Johnson vs. Yoshiyuki Yoshida (catchweight of 176 pounds): Johnson has looked impressive of late but it’s down the drain now as he unconciounably missed weight by seven pounds yesterday. He will run over the overmatched Yoshida here, but forfeit a portion of his purse, and a lot of respect, regardless. My pick: Johnson, KO via head kick, round one.