Shogun will defeat Lyoto on Saturday Night
Posted by Marc Staehling on October 23rd, 2009
All the fighters, pundits and fans have weighed in on this Saturday’s title fight in Los Angeles pitting champ Lyoto Machida against Mauricio Rua, and the verdict is that Machida will have his hand raised. Whether it’s a case of the masses simply overrating the unorthodox “Dragon”, or being oblivious to the dangerous skills Rua possesses I don’t know, but what I do know is that on Saturday night Mauricio Rua will re-claim his spot as the best light heavyweight on the planet.
Mauricio Shogun Rua is the toughest opponent Machida has ever faced. During his last four bouts, Machida choked out Sokoudjou(who has since been exposed as a border-line top twenty LHW), beat a lame Tito Ortiz, whilst nearly getting submitted in the third stanza, Ko’d a fighter in Thiago Silva who has heavy-hands and not much else, and put Rashad Evans to sleep in a fight where the skilled wrestler Evans never made any effort to clinch or take the fight to the canvas. Shogun brings a diverse skill-set that will pose several problems for the champ.
For years Shogun has been mis-labelled as a striker. While Rua does have solid stand-up skills, this is not where he has been his most successful, and is not where he is going to win the fight against Machida. Shogun’s strength is his devastating ground and pound. It was the key to his victories over Rogerio Nogueira, Alistair Overeemx2 and was successful early against Forrest Griffin before a lack of cardiovascular conditioning did him in. This is an aspect of his game that has become even more dangerous in the UFC, as he is now allowed to elbow his opponents to the head on the ground.
In order to excecute his ground and pound, Shogun must be able to take Machida down, something he has been successful at doing against his first three UFC foes. If his cardio is where it should be, and he can come at Machida from different angles, and get him up against the fence, whilst not letting Machida get settled into a rhythm, the champ will be in trouble.
The only way Mauricio Rua loses this fight is if his cardio is not at a top level. It has been responsible for his only two true losses in MMA competition to Babalu and Forrest Griffin.
Shogun has better wrestling, better jiu-jitsu, better ground and pound and more heart than Machida has ever showed in a ring or cage, yet the champ is a massive betting favourite, and people are already annointing him the next Anderson Silva, and he hasn’t even defended his title yet.
So, when Dana White is putting the belt around Rua’s waist on Saturday night, remember, you heard it here first.
October 24th, 2009 at 12:11 am
Well said, Mr. Staehling. Well said.
October 24th, 2009 at 3:38 pm
Nice to see you writing again, Marc. I think the line on the fight is pretty fair, though.
Shogun was finished by Forrest, struggled vs Coleman, and was fortunate to catch CHACKing With The Stars with a lunging left hook that he’d never land on Machida.
I just don’t think Rua has shown the quickness or technique to get a clinch/ground-and-pound game working vs. Machida, at least in recent years. But, maybe he’ll surprise me.
October 27th, 2009 at 6:23 am
Well you were right. Shogun did beat Machida, not by wrestling or BJJ but by strikes after all. I think Shogun will have to come up with a new strategy next time, probably along the lines of what you described.