UFC 101 Predictions
Posted by Tommy Hackett on August 8th, 2009
Anyone else having trouble getting excited about the fight games recently? You’ve got company. Last month was a downer in both MMA & boxing: from the deaths of Arturo Gatti and Alexis Arguello, to the end of Affliction MMA. But life goes on and ZUFFA looks to offer a little respite this weekend, with three pound-for-pound entrants in action. Tonight, BJ Penn and Anderson Silva are showcased, and that’s something that’s always at least worth a look:
(As always, I offer my picks on the night’s four biggest bouts, and
my predictions are for entertainment purposes only… credit to Tracy Lee of Combat Lifestyle for the photography here)
Main Event: BJ Penn (Champion) vs. Kenny Florian (challenger) for the UFC Lightweight Championship: It’s great to see Penn back at his usual weight, taking on the best available contender. Florian is the biggest success story to come out of Ultimate Fighter. But this matchup is not in his favor. I just don’t think there’s a grappler at this weight (and for all his improvement at Muay Thai, Florian remains predominantly a jiu-jitsu player) that can hold a candle to Penn. I’m expecting a return to his old ways of good, solid boxing to set up a takedown, and pounding the fight out from there. We may have been better served by a contenders bout between Sanchez and Florian, but too be fair, a Florian shot is deserved after his win streak. It’s just another case of a guy tearing through the rest of the division until he runs into the top guy; a very good fighter vs. a great one. My prediction: Penn, T/KO (punches from back mount), round two.
Light Heavyweight Bout: Anderson “The Spider” Silva vs. Forrest Griffin: In handicapping this bout, WEC commentator and former UFC heavyweight titlist Frank Mir remarked to KRKO radio that “if I did have to pick a guy, I would pick Forrest. He has a high work ethic, [he's a] bigger guy, very aggressive, very strong and well-rounded.” Mir thinks Forrest’s aggressive style can throw off the counterpunching Silva and has a chance to bully him in the inevitable clinches. He may have a point about possible chinks in the Brazilian’s armor, but I just think there’s a different caliber of athlete at work here. Griffin may surprise a bit but eventually Silva’s straight left will find its mark. Watch for Silva to crouch down to catch Forrest with hammerfists until the ref stops it. My prediction: Silva, T/KO round two.
Middleweights: Ricardo “Cacharrao” Almeida vs. Kendall “Spyder” Grove: What to expect here? Almeida, whose nickname is Portugese for “Big Dog,” has long been an X-factor in this division, with impressive wins over the likes of Nate Marquardt. A memorable video was recently posted online where Renzo Gracie describes their mutually rewarding relationship. But he has basically been forgotten since his listless performance in a close decision loss to Patrick Cote last year. Grove, who recently opened an MMA academy in his native Maui, has look alternately good (running through Alan Belcher with tight standup and groundwork in 2007) and not so good (knocked out quickly by Jorge Rivera last year). The wiry 6′6″ Grove will enjoy a big advantage in reach and has been the more active fighter, but he can get tossed around and I think Almeida can eventually take him to the mat where he has the advantage. It will be a struggle though, and recent performances would infer he may not get the finish there. My prediction: Almeida, decision.
Lightweight Bout: Kurt “Batman” Pellegrino vs. Josh “The Dentist” Neer Good matchmaking here, as two solid MMA grapplers (with awful nicknames) lock up to try and take a step forward. Neer and Pellegrino have spotty records — while the two combine for a total of three losses against the Diaz brothers which are nothing to be ashamed of, there are also losses to lesser names like Mark Miller. This is a good way to round out a PPV. It’s close, and likely to go the distance — but my thought is that we’ll seer the younger and bigger Neer to earn a minor advantage as the fight wears on. Watch for “The Dentist” to get his shots in here and there, as the action quickly goes from standing to clinch to groundwork. My prediction: Neer, decision.
Enjoy the fights.
August 8th, 2009 at 7:32 pm
Pretty much in line with what I have. I’m really looking forward to Kurt/Neer, which is rare for UFC undercards.
August 9th, 2009 at 10:40 am
Yeah, I thought the matchmaking on the undercard was strong here too.
Somehow I forgot how good a wrestler Kurt Pellegrino is, but other than that this show went down about how I expected.
The guys at the top seem so far ahead of the pack right now. Florian’s stall tactics didn’t win him a round on my card and Silva/Griffin got a little embarassing.
Oh, and in case anyone’s wondering, yes, I’m ready to stop overrating Ricardo Almeida now. He was great in 2004, did enough to win last night, and is by all accounts a great guy; but is just nowhere near title contention.
August 11th, 2009 at 1:04 am
Hopefully Grove is headed back to UFN cards where he belongs. Almeida handled him pretty easily.
August 11th, 2009 at 3:28 pm
Yeah, Grove looked bad. UFC 101 was a pretty rough night for Ultimate Fighters when you think about it.
Also, I just realized — I really should have mentioned Vernon Forrest’s death among all the lousy things that happened in July… so, my apologies there.