Predictions: UFC 100
Posted by Tommy Hackett on July 11th, 2009
It’s fight night! While some of you new fans are entering “Akiyama” in your favorite search engine, old guys (like myself) are getting a big kick out of this video UFC 6 which has recently resurfaced. Watch here as UFC 5 contestant Ron Van Clief, a multiple time US karate champion, is asked what he sees as the future of the sport. His response: “I see UFC 100.” Here’s to you, Ron. How great would it be to see this clip tonight, as UFC hits that very milestone, fourteen years later, in Las Vegas?
Before I begin, a tip of the hat to MMAJunkie for not only posting this pic of Tom Lawlor at yesterday’s weigh-ins, but also providing the reference to those not old enough to remember. Kudos.
OK, on to the fights. As always, I offer my predictions on the night’s four biggest matches:
Main Event for the unified UFC Heavyweight Title: Brock Lesnar (champion) vs. Frank Mir (interim champion): Strangely, the least experienced guy on the entire show, Brock Lesnar, is a betting favorite in the main event. Stranger, it seems reasonable. While the bigger and more powerful Lesnar fell into the trap of Mir’s dynamic jiu-jitsu game last time, I think he’ll be smart enough to avoid it this time. Mir outboxed Rodrigo Nogueira recently, but Nogueira looked a shell of his former self then, and I don’t see him repeating it here. Watch for the big man to keep a good posture in the guard during brief ground sequences, and dominate the rest of the bout standing, en route to a stoppage from hammerfist punches. Lesnar, T/KO, round two.
Co-Main Event, for the UFC Welterweight Title: Georges St. Pierre (champion) vs. Thiago Alves: Alves is a powerful guy with some nasty leg kicks, but I think St. Pierre will be able to time them to get his typical takedowns. From there, we may end with a surprisingly interesting jiu-jitsu match between the two. Typically in MMA, the guy with the better top control wins, and my guess is Alves will tire and eventually get stopped. GSP, T/KO 4.
Middleweights: Dan Henderson vs. Michael Bisping I’m not entirely sold on either of these guy as really among the elite at this point, but they still bring some solid skills to the table. Bisping is good all-around, but struggles when he’s being outwrestled (as against Matt Hammil, against whom he “earned” a questionable decision victory). Henderson turns 39 next month, and he may not have the firepower he had in the past, but still should get his takedowns and Bisping should be tough enough to go the distance. Henderson, decision.
Middleweights: Alan Belcher vs. Akiyama: What to expect here? The debut of a world-class judo player with great MMA wins in Japan should always be a highlight. But it’s hard to predict how Akiyama will transition to the UFC, with some different rules to deal with, and yes, drug testing. Belcher’s underrated Muay Thai may cause some early problems here, but Akiyama strikes me a much better overall athlete. Both Belcher and Akiyama actually recorded their biggest career win in MMA against the same opponent: Denis Kang. But while Belcher was eventually able to wrest a submission to capitalize on a Kang mistake, Akiyama’s KO victory was decisive. He should eventually get the advantage standing and take this with a choke. Akiyama, submission, round two.