My Midterm Grades, Part Two
Posted by Tommy Hackett on April 26th, 2009
I am finishing my look at the accuracy of my predictions for the year’s biggest MMA bouts today. If you missed part one, it’s just down the page. If you don’t care, find something else to read. HA!
As always, I offer predictions on the evening’s four biggest bouts.
UFC 95 is next on our list. It was a so-so show, but why complain if they’re broadcasting free on SPIKE?
Joe Stevenson vs. Diego Sanchez (lightweights): What I wrote: “I see this one going the distance. Stevenson is tough enough to keep it close, but the better grappler overall, Sanchez, is my pick.” Result: Sanchez by decision. It actually wasn’t terribly close; but as predicted, Sanchez is just better all-around, and Stevenson is nothing if not tough.
Damien Maia vs. Chael Sonnen (middleweights): What I wrote: Maia’s jiu-jitsu is just too much here, and training with Wanderlei Silva will have him more than prepared for Sonnen’s aggressive approach. Look for Maia to wrap him up early, with a round one triangle. Result: Maia by submission, round one, with a triangle. Not too bad.
Nate Marquardt vs. Wilson Gouveia (middleweights) What I wrote: “ATT’s Gouveia, campaigning now at 185, hasn’t impressed as much with his jiu-jitsu as his heavy hands –and I think it’s going to hurt him here. Nate’s just a bit more polished in both his standup and his takedowns. I think he can set up the takedowns he needs, get Gouveia where he wants him, and eventually pound out a TKO victory, round two.” Result: Marquardt by TKO, round three. Nate didn’t bother with takedowns, and mostly picked Gouveia apart standing when it was clear he had the edge there — but my assessments were about right.
Josh Koscheck vs. Paulo Thiago (welterweights): What I wrote: “It’s unlikely (Thiago) will stop a takedown or give any problems standing, and more importantly, he appears to have a better top than bottom game in available fight footage; lacking the great guard you would need to submit Koscheck. I think Josh will eventually get a round two T/KO with strikes in the guard.” RESULT: Thiago by T/KO, round one. Ouch! Koscheck’s affinity for standup, which he’s just so-so at, was going to end up bad for him eventually, but I’m still surprised Wallid Ismail’s charge was the one to hurt him for it.
UFC 97 is last. I actually messed up the date for this one, which you’d think would be a bad sign, but the fights went OK:
Main Event, for the UFC Middleweight Championship: Anderson Silva (champion) vs. Thales Leites (challenger) What I wrote: Leites is a tough jiu-jitsu player with good all-around skills, but he’s never been in with someone who moves like Silva. Look for the “Spider’s” superior footwork to set up jabs and kicks, and the finish to come in the plumb clinch or with strikes on the mat. Silva, T/KO 1. Result: Silva, unanimous decision. Silva would later admit to Tatame magazine that he basically took it easy on his countryman.
Light Heavyweights: Chuck “The Iceman” Liddell vs. Mauricio “Shogun” Rua What I wrote: “When Rua’s attempts to grapple go nowhere, I expect Liddell’s counters to find their home, and force a stoppage late.” The result: Rua, T/Ko 1. Liddell just got a little older than Rua, a hard thing to predict, and has wisely said goodbye to the sport he helped put on the map.
Heavyweights: Cheik Kongo vs. Antoni Hardonk What I wrote: “Kongo will likely use his new skills in top control to keep Hardonk on the mat and pound his way to victory. Kongo, decision.” Result, Kongo T/KO 2. Most of us knew Kongo was on another level here, but we didn’t realize he is still improving his ability to finish. I don’t like the guy, but he’s good.
Light Heavyweights: Brian Stann vs. Krystof Soszynski What I wrote: “Soszynski has 25 matches at 31, but it’s unclear if he’s going to step into contention, or play a gatekeeper role. I’m not sure we’ll get the answer here but I think he has the guile to get Stann where he wants him and set up a submission. Soszynski, submission, round 2.” Result, Soszynski submission 1. Stann hits hard, but he was a little green to be on the main card of a UFC at this point.
In total, six correct winners were predicted out of eight fights here, bringing my record to 11 and 4 for the year… pretty good, but not great. At least all the main events were correct. On the other hand, I also didn’t go too far out on a limb anywhere, and it’s difficult to believe we will go all year without a major upset.
April 26th, 2009 at 11:02 pm
Not too shabby. But did you predict Maynard or Fry?
April 28th, 2009 at 12:41 pm
I felt it was a bad call. I’m glad he didn’t get hurt. Hopefully the mistake will never be repeated.