At the edge of the elite of the light heavyweight elite lies one of MMA’s great enigmas: Keith Jardine. Jardine comes in this weekend’s title bout nearly a 3-1 underdog to former champion Quinton Jackson, a fact punctuated by Rampage’s brutal victory over long time nemesis Wanderlei Silva. MMAth dictates the winner should clearly be Jackson, having just defeated a man who knocked Jardine out in less than a minute. And yet things are not actually that simple.

The case against Jardine is multifaceted. He has, his detractors argue, a poor chin, has come up short repeatedly through his career, and should one of them spend some brain cells thinking how Rampage would win, is not nearly the wrestler Jackson is. These are important aspects, and they are why this is a competitive fight. It is by no means, however, a wash for Jackson.

-DIDN’T SOMEONE TELL YOU? STYLES MAKE FIGHTS-

Rush Jardine and you might catch him. Wiuff, Alexander, and Silva all did that. While the excuse that he should have expected it from Silva is definitely true, the Wiuff KO was sudden (6 seconds!) and the star making loss to Houston Alexander happened as Jardine was flailing wildly for his own KO win. 

Alternately, Jardine took the best shots of Forrest Griffin and Chuck Liddell, survived, and then returned fire of his own. He forced the generally aggressive Brandon Vera and Stephan Bonnar into shells (though the latter is listed as a loss on paper). While he has some unfortunate losses, it is ridiculous to discount his wins, many of which were against the highest caliber of fighter the division has to offer. And that’s why its worth digging further to analyze the fight. What did Jardine do right? How could he make it work with Rampage?

When you look at Rampage’s deficencies, they are few and far between. He sucks at checking leg kicks, he’s shown a propensity to lay in the pocket and counter punch (even against subpar fighters), he can be beaten by guys who like to fight at distance, and he’s got no game off his back. Luckily for Quinton Jackson, he doesn’t have to worry about that last issue. Unfortunately for Jackson, all the others are applicable. Jardine’s leg kicks were devastating against Liddell and Vera. His specialty is managing distance and fighting from outside where its easier to see punches coming, and he’s by trade a counterpuncher. These are all things that will trouble Rampage; make no doubt about it.

-NO PRESSURE-

One of the more interesting arguments as to why Jardine should be such a heavy dog is that Rampage is the kind of guy who marches forward very quickly and destroys his opponents. Interestingly, there is no evidence of this being the case in any fight since he faced pro wrestler Hirotaka Yokoi 4 years ago in PRIDE. In fact, prior to that fight, his previous performances came with Rampage playing the part of counter puncher, losing 2 of 3 and the sole win being a highly controversial decision to uber-chinny Ninja Rua. He did it against then winless Dong Sik Yoon, unintentionally making himself look shot in the process. He and Matt Lindland rarely stood at distance in their WFA classic, but when carted over to the UFC, Rampage fell into the counter puncher role in a somewhat listless performance against natural middleweight Marvin Eastman, Chuck Liddell, Dan Henderson (who was the clear aggressor all 5 rounds), Forrest Griffin, and of course Silva. For Rampage to switch gears and attempt to go in with blazing offense would be a change of strategy completely disconnected from most of his bouts at the elite level. 

-JARDINE’S BEST WEAPON IS QUINTON’S BIGGEST WEAKNESS-

In round 2 of Rampage/Griffin, Rampage looked like he was just about done. Why? Repeated leg kicks. He somehow hobbled his way through the next 25 minutes of the war, reminding everyone of his often unheralded toughness, but it exposed a major flaw in his game that his been present for a long time; his inability to check kicks. He’s actually lousy at it, something both Ninja and Shogun Rua exploited, along with Forrest and even, to some extent, Yoon. Jardine is perhaps the best fighter in the light heavyweight division when it comes to throwing inside and outside leg kicks, and they have been an effective part of his strategy when knocking out Forrest Griffin (dropping Forrest’s hands), decisioning Chuck Liddell (effectively dominating the counter puncher from a distance beyond which Liddell was effective) and Brandon Vera. 

-SOME GUYS ARE GAMERS….-

Rampage has been in the position of fighting guys like Jardine before in bouts that were effectively time killers until bigger fights on the horizon appeared. His controversial bout with Murilo Bustamante came in the first round of the PRIDE Middleweight Grand Prix with Quinton already thinking further down the line. Ninja Rua came as an optional fight to Rampage following his second loss to Wanderlei Silva, and he did horrifically. His final bout in PRIDE against the seemingly hapless Yoon was devastating to his standing among many fans. Even his first bout in the UFC against Marvin Eastman dragged on much longer than it ever should have. Jardine’s loss to Silva was in a fight he clearly should have been focused for, but his wins against Vera, Liddell, and Griffin shows he comes prepared more often than he does not for the legit talents. Rampage has a history of turning in disappointing performances at times like these, and Jardine typically makes the most of them.

-WHAT JARDINE REALLY NEEDS TO WATCH FOR-

Now that I’ve outlined why I think Jardine is a real threat to win, I’m going to tell you when and where this fight I think this fight will be decided: It will be somewhere between the 4th minute of Round one and the 3rd minute of Round 2 as Rampage rushes in for a clinch in order to end the constant string of leg kicks. Rampage has a definitive advantage in wrestling and should, in theory, be able to put Jardine on his back. When there, Jardine has never shown the kind of submission game that would be necessary to trap Rampage. What could change the equation is how badly Quinton is weakened by leg kicks prior to that attempt for a takedown. If Jardine is successful in weakening him and preventing it for some period of time or at all, or he’s able to easily tie up Rampage and prevent him from passing once on his back, Jardine will win. No ifs, ands, or buts. If not? Rampage will be returning to the promised land.