Josh Koscheck: Quo Vadimus
Posted by Dave Walsh on February 22nd, 2009
There are a lot of questions buzzing around the bleached blond locks on top of Josh Koscheck’s head after the stunning loss to Paulo Thiago last night at UFC 95 in London. The biggest question is, where does Koscheck go from here, and what does UFC do with him now that he lost a fight that he should have easily won? I pose the question;
“Quo Vadimus” — Where are we going?
Koscheck fought the fight that UFC fans tend to prefer; standing up, throwing bombs and aiming for a knockout. Throughout the commentary on the fight, Joe Rogan and Mike Goldberg kept talking about Koscheck’s improved stand up and how he resembles Chuck Liddell now; the wrestler with the amazing sprawl, the takedowns and aggressive stand up style that puts opponents down. Has this new “style” truly served Koscheck well, though? He is a company man, stepping forward to take fights other fighters won’t take, working a more fan-friendly style and rarely ever speaking a bad word about the company.
UFC has made it clear in the past that if a fighter missteps but is willing to do the work, that they will support said fighters. When Frank Mir suffered an embarrassing loss at the unskilled fists of Pe de Pano Cruz, UFC let him get himself together and make his comeback, now he is the Interim Heavyweight Champion. When Georges St. Pierre got overzealous and took Matt Serra lightly, getting caught in an embarrassing loss, he was still the first person they called when they were in a jam and needed an opponent for Serra. When Chuck Liddell partied too hard, did too much coke and god knows what, UFC kept giving him shots at the top. You get what I’m saying.
Will Koscheck be able to show that not only is he an evolved fighter, but a grown man as well? A loss to an opponent not on your level can be a devastating loss, as is one to somebody you could never imagine defeating you. We know what Koscheck has to do, he has to get back out there, train his heart out, evaluate his style and take whatever fights they throw at him. It is clear that many, many people see big things for Koscheck, it is just up to him to keep his head in the game and to continue to grow.
February 23rd, 2009 at 2:53 pm
Dave: As usual, an excellent analysis, although I disagree on some points. This fight was a huge disaster for Kos, both in terms of losing to a relative unknown in Paulo Thiago; and by the way he lost. The fact is that Kos got sloppy in the stand-up. He was head-hunting and was over-ambitious in stalking Thiago around the cage. Kos’ left hand dropped dangerously low 2 minutes into the fight. It’s obvious that Kos was going for a quick, impressive KO over an opponent that he never even studied on film.
Recklessness and impatience can often lead to losses, and Kos should have learned this lesson when he became over-confident against Drew Fickett and ate a knee a couple of years back. Kos always tries hard; but that fight last Saturday simply wasn’t a UFC-caliber effort on his part.
Kos is in deep, deep trouble as far as his UFC tenure is concerned. He has WW losses to GSP (the champion), Thiago Alves (#1 contender), and now Paulo Thiago. It would take Kos at least 4 big wins to work himself back to contendership status, including a convincing revenge-win against GSP, Alves, or both. It’s very unlikely that he can pull it off. At 31 years old, Kos is older than both GSP and Alves, and they are improving as fast or faster than Kos is. He won’t likely beat GSP or Alves.
Going to LW may be an option for Kos. He mentioned that possibility before briefly, and it’s possible that he could get into the Top 3 of that division. The problem is that Kos has always competed (even during NCAA collegiate wrestling) at 170-174. He probably hasn’t seen 155 since high school, so that would be a bigger adjustment for Kos than it will be for someone like Diego Sanchez. If Kos is going to make the change to lightweight, he had better do so now. He has maybe 5 good years of competition left in him to do something before he starts to fade. If he wants to win a belt, Kos should go to LW immediately. Even there, it would be an uphill battle for him to get the belt.
February 23rd, 2009 at 3:23 pm
I think the mentions to Liddell were pretty apt by Rogan, especially with the way he lost. He was basically fighting the “come forward/be aggressive” Liddell style, which as we all know, doesn’t work for Liddell. I still think that UFC will be loyal to Koscheck as long as he remains loyal to them.
I agree that they will most likely push for Koscheck to drop down in weight, as it is clear that he is around the same basic size as Diego, who easily made 155. While Alves is an extreme example, Alves was a giant compared to Koscheck. Much like Lesnar at heavyweight, having a guy like Alves in the division is going to make a lot of guys consider dropping in weight to avoid having to deal with guys outweighing them by a lot.
I still see bright things for Koscheck, but he really needs to re-evaluate his training, mindset and game plans. I think that he is a much better fighter than Paulo Thiago, but there is no doubt that Paulo Thiago defeated Koscheck when he got sloppy. This loss easily sets Koscheck back for about a year, or like you said, around 4 fights.
But that is logical thinking. With how UFC works, you never quite know. UFC does have a tendency to “forget” or “forgive” losses to lesser opponents when they need to fill a spot. Certain fighters are simply untouchable, guys like Wanderlei Silva, regardless of their record, will continue to be booked by Dana & Co. because of his style, demeanor and name fit what they are looking for.
February 26th, 2009 at 5:59 am
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