My UFC 94 Predictions
Posted by Tommy Hackett on January 31st, 2009
(Visit Tracy Lee’s site for more great MMA photography like this.)
Tonight’s UFC is stacked like few MMA shows in history. Besides the rematch between BJ Penn and Georges St Pierre, UFC 94 features a strong undercard featuring two undefeated light heavyweights in a likely title bout eliminator, and a good lightweight bout to open. Since my Affliction predictions went pretty well last week, I’m giving my picks on the top four fights again. Actually, my first and most important prediction is that this will be worth your money. Beyond that…
Main Event: BJ Penn vs. Georges St. Pierre: Well, despite the talk on our message board, I find this bout a nightmare to pick. Penn won the first round of their first bout then faded; but he has since corrected his issues with conditioning. On the other hand what has set Penn apart in this time frame is a hunger. He famously woke up from a hangover, and changed his life. Instead of bragging about how little he trained, he hired a nutritionist and bragged about how often he trained. The guy who did the impossible over and again was out to prove all his doubters wrong.
Unfortunately, it’s unclear if that hunger is still there, as his “Prime Time” series showcases him relaxing then trash talking, while GSP calmly trains for the fight of his life. More importantly, the bout is taking place at a weight which favors the guy with the fleur-de-lis tattoo.
I’ll be rooting for BJ who has long been my favorite active MMA fighter. Just over a year ago, I wrote that “I don’t entirely disagree with some of his criticism leveled at Penn, but with his fitness now matching his form, any ranking for Penn will be warrented within a year. Hopefully the trash talk won’t be necessary to get the fans’ attention by then.” I think I was proven right — the guy has completely dominated his division and looked easily as dominant as anyone in MMA during the last 12 months.
Still, I’m concerned it will be a bad night for him. Look for some strong work in standup, some good moments in the guard, but GSP’s stronger takedowns and better conditioning to carry the day. I’m picking GSP by decision.
Lyoto Machida vs. Thiago Silva: My first prediction for this fight is that Joe Rogan will describe it as “The Unstoppable Force Against The Immovable Object.” It just sounds like something he would say, and he’s more or less correct. I believe Machida displays the better overall technique of the two and presents a terrible puzzle for any opponent with his elusive, Shotokan-based standup style. Silva is skilled and has power, but it won’t matter when he can’t catch up to his opponent, and frankly, I find this guy a little overrated. Machida by decision.
Karo Parisyan vs. Dong Hyun Kim: This is a tough one as I find Kim a bit unproven and Karo a big question mark on his return. I’ve heard that Parisyan has hit some tough times, but he looked like he was in good shape at the weigh ins. His fellow judoka and opponent, the much taller Kim, looked as shredded as Bruce Lee in Return of the Dragon. I see the Korean using his reach advantage and strong defensive skills to frustrate Karo and eventually pound out a dull victory Kim via T/KO in the third.
Nate Diaz vs. Clay Guida : On the other hand, neither of these guys could have a dull fight if they tried. Expect back-and forth takedowns and strikes until someone gets caught, midway through the second round. My guess is that someone will be Guida, and watch for the Ceasar Gracie disciple to offer a quick and much deserved tribute to Helio Gracie after he catches Guida in a triangle. Diaz by submission in the second round.
January 31st, 2009 at 1:57 pm
Enjoyed the peace and I agree with most of the analysis, but did you mix up Thiago Silva with Thiago Alves a bit there?
January 31st, 2009 at 2:51 pm
Um, dude…you realize Machida’s fighting Thiago *Silva* right? Alves is a WW.
January 31st, 2009 at 2:59 pm
The error has been corrected. Silva & Alves are both overrated and my pick stands. I’d pick Machida against Wanderlei Silva too.
Also, Alves wasn’t a WW for the Hughes bout, and it’s a “piece,” not a “peace.” See, no one’s perfect
TH
January 31st, 2009 at 4:57 pm
I enjoy peace as well my brothers. Let’s all think about peace today for a minute.
January 31st, 2009 at 4:58 pm
And I say Karo goes down in the first round.
January 31st, 2009 at 6:20 pm
Dana White has confused Thiago Alves and Silva on one of his youtube vlogs, that is how interchangeable they are to most.
July 19th, 2009 at 4:01 am
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