My Affliction Picks
Posted by Tommy Hackett on January 24th, 2009
What’s cooler than a “Scarface: The World Is Yours” snowglobe? Well… let’s be honest, pretty much nothing. Really. I mean, that’s pretty much it. I can’t top it. But I hope my picks for the headliners for this weekend’s Affliction PPV are worth a read anyway.
Main Event: Emilialenenko Fedor vs. Andrei Arlovski Much has been made of Arlovski’s chances here, and to be fair, it’s as good a pairing we’ll find for the “Last Emporer.” That doesn’t mean it will be competitive; just a bit less of a mauling than any other bout Fedor could take. Arlovski’s experience at Wild Card Gym will come into play early. I expect AA to cautiously look to to box Fedor on the outside, and possibly find some early success. Then, watch Fedor to catch him with a lead left hook or a counter overhand right… and watch Arlovski fall apart. As the rounds wear on, expect Fedor to get stronger and pound him out, mostly with punches on the mat, in three. People will analyze and overanalyze, but there is simply nothing in Arlovski’s history that tells me he can weather Fedor’s unorthodox standup, or cope with Fedor’s groundwork.
Josh Barnett vs. Gilbert Yvel: I don’t know why, but I always want to believe in Yvel. He shows flashes of brilliance here & there: a dynamic Muay Thai MMA game, full of flying knees and high kicks. But he has never been a consistent performer, and even when he shows improvement (as in his groundwork vs. Jeremy Horn) he can still find ways to lose. Meanwhile, Barnett has only lost to three guys (two of whom he would eventually defeat) in his 28 MMA fights. He’s a strong all-around fighter who forces the best to fight his game and he probably won’t have any problem getting into Yvel’s head. Expect him to ground the “Hurricane” out and catch him in an armlock in the second round.
Matt Lindland vs. Vitor Belfort: I’ve never been a big fan of Lindland but I know he’s a good fighter, if not the prettiest to look at. Even as he enters the twilight of his career, it’s easy to imagine him controlling a gaunt Belfort with his lurching straight left and omnipresent front headlock, and maybe even getting a submission if “The Phenom” tires. I’d love to see Belfort get a KO here, but I think I’ve been saying that since about 1998. I think a slow decision win for Lindland is the most likely outcome.
Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou (205.25) vs. Renato Sobral: Sokodjou can really pound someone out if they’re not careful, as in the case of his career-making knockouts of Rogerio and Arona; but it’s hard for me to believe Gracie Barra won’t make sure Sobral is careful. I actually think he can get Soko down early, and get a submission in round one.
I’m looking forward to this one; expecting a wide range of finishes and different skills on display. See you there.
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