Let’s be honest here.  Saturday’s UFC (I don’t bother to count them anymore) is pretty much a one fight card.  I mean, all due respect to Tamden McCrory, no one’s tuning in to watch him and Dustin Hazelett, however good their matchup might be.  Demian Maia might be a top up and coming middleweight, but his bout with Nate Quarry is a keeping-busy fight.  And why are Jorge Gurgel and Aaron Riley even on a UFC card?  Did we go back in time five years and no one tell me? 

No, if you’re shelling out the bucks to see this show, you’re there for one reason and one reason only – to see if Brock Lesnar really is the next big thing in MMA, or if Randy Couture can pull off yet another miracle win over what appears to be a physically superior opponent.  On one side, you’ve got (comparative) youth, size, speed, and power.  On the other, experience, savvy, and legendary conditioning.  So how does tomorrow’s main event go? 

When I look at a big fight, I like to go back to each guy’s previous bouts against similar opponents.  Nothing reveals the future better than the past.  Yes, I am a historian, why do you ask?  Here’s the problem.  Brock Lesnar’s never faced an opponent like Randy Couture.  Heath Herring’s a decent striker with an average ground game who can’t wrestle worth a damn.  Frank Mir’s a submission wizard with mediocre striking and wrestling.  A clinch specialist with outstanding wrestling skills is well outside Lesnar’s MMA experience.   

Couture, though, has some experience with larger grapplers.  They’re not pleasant memories.  He was doing fine for about three rounds against Ricco Rodriguez before he ran out of steam and ended up on the bottom, where he was pounded out in short order.  That performance was actually an improvement over his previous bout with Josh Barnett, which saw Couture get reversed and pounded out in the opening round.  Those two bouts were why Couture dropped to light heavyweight in the first place – the realization that he was just too small to do much on the mat against the behemoths who cut weight to make the 265 limit.   

Couture’s heavyweight renaissance has been impressive, no doubt about it.  You won’t find many people who actually thought he was going to beat Tim Sylvia, no matter what they tell you today.  Gabriel Gonzaga’s recent performances have taken some of the luster off of that victory, but at the time Couture’s absolute destruction of him got plenty of attention.  But Brock Lesnar isn’t Tim Sylvia and he isn’t Gabriel Gonzaga.  He’s a better pure athlete than either man ever dreamed of being.  He’s stronger, faster, and larger.  Inexperienced, yes, but he also brings one thing to the table that neither did; that no one since Kevin Randleman has brought to a fight with Randy Couture.  He’s a better wrestler than Randy Couture.   

Couture’s entire game is built on being the better wrestler.  The clinch game, once the best in the sport, and the ground and pound, obviously.  But his standup performances against Sylvia and Liddell (first fight), likewise, worked because his opponents must always be cognizant of the takedown threat.  Similarly, Couture can take a risk with his hands, knowing he can go to plan B, the clinch and the takedown, if things aren’t going his way.  Against Brock Lesnar, he won’t enjoy that luxury.  The advantages Couture does enjoy are largely irrelevant.  Yes, he’s probably got a better submission game than the rookie.  The only people Couture’s submitted in competition since 1997 are three dudes from Pros vs. Joes.  Yes, he’s got better hands and head movement.  I’ll wait here while you, gentle reader, dig up someone Randy Couture’s knocked out in his MMA career. 

Find anybody yet? 

How ‘bout now? 

Now? 

Nobody, huh?  Then let’s dispense with the idea that Randy Couture, whose entire career consists of ground and pound TKOs and judges’ decisions, will at this late date turn into a knockout puncher or submission finisher.  Brock Lesnar is, unquestionably, an extremely limited fighter.  No submission game to speak of.  Limited striking skills.  Questionable finishing ability.  This fight, though, is the best matchup he could ask for in terms of both skill sets and marketability.   

Fellow Total-MMA.com writer Alan Conceicao called this fight the UFC’s version of Sapp/Nogueira, and I think he’s right - monster rookie against a tough, savvy, but undersized vet.  It’s the kind of fight that seems custom made to turn potential into stardom, stardom into legend.  But Lesnar’s better than Sapp ever was – a battle-tested, elite combat athlete, rather than someone who fights for lack of anything better to do with his physical gifts.  And while Nogueira made a career of fighting off his back, Couture never picked up the knack.  He’s never won a fight from the bottom; he’s rarely, in fact, even survived long in that position. 

Brock Lesnar, UFC heavyweight champion.  Get used to it.