Your Roundtable:
Lee Casebolt (LC)
Dave Walsh (DW)
Alan Conceicao (AC)
Chris Henderson (CH)
Kendall Shields (KS)

Can Griffin buck the odds and legitimately become THE ULTIMATE FIGHTER? Our staff opines.

AC: On paper, its a great fight. Last man who beat Rampage was totalled by Griffin, making him argurably the linear light heavyweight champ for PRIDE. Jackson has, of course, won the actual PRIDE belt, which he lusted after for years. Now the chance to have every loose end in the division wrapped up. After this, finally, no questions about legitimacy.

However, in looking at the question of “who wins”, there is a very clear problem for Griffin. Apart from his submissions off his back, I feel he’s not as good as Rampage at anything. Not striking (apart from
throwing low kicks), not wrestling, not top control, not the clinch, nothing. He cuts much easier than Rampage too. For Forrest to win, he’s gonna have to swarm Rampage and hope he either doesn’t get KOed doing it or cut badly. Rampage has shown in the past that if you crowd him standing, he doesn’t necessarily think takedown (which would be his best option). Silva did that and beat him twice. Ninja did that and probably deserved the W. If Forrest does that, he may wear out Rampage and win the fight.

For Rampage, its about GnP and crisp straight shots standing. He’s got faster hands than Griffin and I think he throws better shots. Every time Forrest throws a low kick (and he will), he should take him down and muscle him into the cage. If he does that, he should stop him around round 4. Forrest’s never been that long and Rampage has been past the 15 minute mark 4 times.

I gotta give the advantage to Rampage and expect him to win. Forrest had the right gameplan for Shogun, but I don’t expect lightning to strike twice.

CH: It’s amazing that forty minutes of a countdown show has gotten me more hyped about this fight than thirteen episodes of conjured up melodrama on The Ultimate Fighter. Despite some of my interest being rekindled by the preview show, I still haven’t been less excited over a light heavyweight title fight since Liddell-Horn. My hometown bias has me rooting wholeheartedly for Forrest, but it’s going to take the performance of a lifetime to dethrone Jackson.

Griffin’s knockout loss in December 2006 to Keith Jardine is an ominous sign ahead of a fight with a man with jackhammers for hands. Jackson has shown he can be knocked out in the past, but does Griffin have that type of power in his hands (and feet) to take advantage? I don’t think so. Submission victory perhaps? Many have tried, all but Kazushi Sakuraba have failed. Getting Jackson in a position to be submitted without being thrown on his head or clubbed mercilessly is a daunting task for Forrest.

So it comes down to the question of whether Griffin can outwork Rampage for five rounds. Can he? Possibly. Will he be able to without being inevitably crushed by Jackson’s fists? Probably not. Let’s just hope it’s not another eleven months before we see either fighter back in the cage.

KS: I’m completely under the sway of the of the UFC marketing machine as regards Forrest Griffin. I am utterly convinced he is just a hardworking goofy everyman who I totally would like to hang out with, thank you very much. I don’t think their coaching stints on The Ultimate Fighter made me want to see this fight any more than I already did — but that’s fine, because Jackson/Griffin sounded great to me from the get go: the sport’s two most charismatic fighters, both seemingly at their best right now. There’s been talk in some quarters that Forrest hasn’t really done enough to earn a title shot, but a win over Shogun Rua (even a newly married, possibly injured Shogun Rua) is definitely enough for me. Griffin was unbelievable that night, in what was, let us not forget, an outrageous upset. Although I fully expect Rampage to pound Griffin out before the third round, I didn’t see how Forrest was going to get out of the first with Shogun, so what do I know?

LC: Jackson/Griffin is a nightmare to pick. Jackson’s got cleaner boxing and beautiful, devastating slams. Griffin’s not spectacular at any one area, but also has no glaring weaknesses of any kind, and is huge for a LHW. Can Jackson throw around someone with the size/skill combination of Griffin? Who will have the gas to go five rounds? I’m extremely tempted to pick Griffin - he’s shown so much improvement over the last three years, and I suspect he’ll have something of an edge if it goes to the cards. Jackson’s a better finisher, though, and has proved me wrong in his last two title fights. When in doubt, stick with the champ.

DW: The build-up has been a bust, sadly, but that is UFC’s fault. Instead of hyping this for what it is; a battle for UFC’s most decorated and important title, the winner able to claim he is the best at 205 in the world, UFC has chosen to try to give this a dramatic HATE build with a season of TUF. It didn’t work. Neither Griffin or Rampage have an ounce of hate for each other, and neither guy was about to fake it to make Dana White and his buddies the Fertittas more money. What should be a great fight is being pulled down by bad build. Oh, UFC. Jackson takes this unless Griffin is able to keep his distance and pull off a decision wearing Jackson out.