Editor’s Note: This is the first of a three-part preview of this weekend’s UFC. We’ll cover the undercard today, the televised card tomorrow, and the main event on Friday.

Your round-tablers today:
Lee Casebolt (LC)
Dave Walsh (DW)
Alan Conceicao (AC)
Chris Henderson (CH)

-Gabriel Gonzaga vs. Justin McCully

LC: I will be absolutely stunned if Gonzaga doesn’t crush McCully. Seriously, what does McCully bring to the table here? Which is the point, of course - McCully is there to start the rebuild on Gonzaga, who made the shocking transition from Guy Who Beat Crocop to Guy Who Can’t Take A Punch. With Filopovic, Sylvia, and Arlovski gone, and Vera clearly not making it as a heavyweight contender, Zuffa needs Gonzaga in a position of strength to bolster a sliding division short on compelling matchups at the championship level.

CH: Hard to believe that at this time last year, Gonzaga was getting prepared for a shot at the UFC Heavyweight Title against Randy Couture. A year on and Napao finds himself potentially one loss away from finding a new promotion to fight for. Fortunately for him, he’s been served up a perfect opponent on a silver platter. Justin McCully drew the wrath of MMA fans everywhere with a dull decision victory over Dana White flavor of the month Antoni Hardonk about fifteen months ago. I’d say McCully’s only chance is to try and weather the inevitable early storm from Napao and hope Gonzaga suffers another late fight breakdown. I wouldn’t hold my breath on that happening. Gabriel Gonzaga by Submission in Round Two.

AC: Hopefully Gonzaga/McCully is better in practice than it is on paper. I expect lots of guys with beer guts laying on top of one another in that one.

DW: This is more or less why I hate heavyweight fights. Gonzanga is an exciting fighter who surprises, and his opponent is your standard, KOTC-level slug. Gonzanga takes this one, but don’t expect to be
impressed or even remotely happy.

-Justin Buchholz vs. Corey Hill

CH: It feels like Corey Hill’s been around forever, which makes it all the more amazing to realize this is only his second true UFC fight. He thrashed the woefully outclassed Joe Veres in January, but it’s still very hard to judge his skill level at this point. Justin Buchholz did nothing against Matt Wiman to lead me to believe he’s cut out for this level. Corey should take this without too many problems, but I can’t help but wonder if a stint in the WEC would help with the learning curve instead of fighting journeymen every six months in UFC dark matches.

DW: I haven’t seen Corey Hill in a while, and who the hell is Buchholz other than the guy “Handsome” Matt Wiman choked out in 3 minutes in January? Hill is still fresh into his career and hell, I don’t know.
Double knockout?

AC: I have never, ever heard of Buchholz.

LC: If I made a list of all the things I know about Justin Buchholz, I would be done right about… now. I presume he’s been brought in to make the very tall Corey Hill look good, instead of just very tall. I therefore presume he has just enough talent to look competent, but not so much as to be a genuine threat. I am actually kind of interested in how Hill has progressed. He looked like he had a world of potential, but who knows how much work he’s put it?

-Melvin Guillard vs. Dennis Siver

DW: This is most likely going to be your scrappy slugfest that we get aired after the main card is over, this is the kind of fight they book for Dana White to give fight of the night to when they put on a few
rounds of sloppy boxing with lots of BOMBZ.

CH: I read an interview recently with Melvin where he talks about how he’s trying to get back to having fun fighting, but still somehow manages to come off as a completely immature, classless jerk. Melvin probably still can’t defend a submission to save his life, but Dennis Siver just isn’t very good. If Melvin uses his head, he should win early and easy. Then again, this is Melvin Guillard we’re talking about..Guillard by KO in Round One.

LC: Melvin Guillard still has a contract? Unbelievable. How many first round submissions can one UFC career endure? If Siver can stay conscious for four and half minutes, he ought to be able to tack one more onto the list.

AC: Siver/Guillard is a Dana White Special: two muscular guys with mediocre grappling and lots of striking. My hope is that Guillard does an overhead belly to belly in this fight. He hasn’t broken that out in eons.

-Cole Miller vs. Jorge Gurgel

LC: Cole Miller v Jorge Gurgel is probably the best-matched of the prelim fights. Expect a ground fight, which Miller will win because he will make it a fight rather than a no gi BJJ match. Gurgel suffers from some sort of mental block that makes him think MMA consists of kickboxing on the feet and sport BJJ on the ground, and he sort of falls apart when people break his concentration by hitting him.

AC: Miller/Gurgel is a fight Gurgel might actually win, since I don’t remember Cole being particularly proficient standing, but again, not much excitement for them.

DW: Will Jorge Gurgel finally get the impressive win that he believes he should be getting in every single fight he is in, or will he simply continue to be the guy that trains fighters well but he himself can’t really impress? I’m betting he wins and that it isn’t that impressive.

CH: Is it wrong that I have some sick fascination with seeing Jorge possibly humiliated whenever he fights? I think some of my angst stems from just having watched his fight from UFC 82 against John Halverson and wanting to strangle Rogan and Goldberg for their obnoxious touting of Jorge despite a thoroughly underwhelming performance against a C-class lightweight. Cole Miller is far from a C-class lightweight. I’m expecting Jorge to try and control things on the ground for a round, before getting frustrated and trying to stand toe-to-toe with Cole, getting picked apart in the process in route to losing a not-as-close as it looks 29-28 decision.