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I’m back after a week off from gambling in the giddy aftermath of my spectacular UFC 84 winnings. Listen up heads, to Jordan Breen, because I’ve got another SURE-FIRE winning accumulator hidden below.

Last Week

No bets. I would have probably put some money on James Thompson at long-ish odds which in hindsight was both a good prediction and lucky to have been avoided.

Balance carried forward: £1,214.44

This Week

UFC 85

It’s good to be in profit on our initial £1,000 investment as that gives me a little more license to go with my instinct rather than necessarily over-thinking and talking yourself out of mis-priced underdogs - I specifically regret missig out on Kin’s win in DREAM the other week. I’ll try to just gamble with my profits from here on in.

Favourites Accumulator: Thiago Tavares / Roan Carneiro - win double - £100 @ 1.49 (Bet365)

I think this card is very, very awkward from a betting point of view. These are the only two I could look and regard as stick-on favourites. At 1.22 individually there seems little point so I am doubling up to get slightly more value out of them.

Underdogs Accumulator: Marcus Davis (2.0) / Jess Liaudin (3.0) / Luiz Cane (2.25) - win treble - £50 @ 13.50 (Bet365)

I’m a little shocked that Davis is an underdog against Swick, even though it’s absolutely minimal. The momentum is with him and I think he can win fights like this all day long. He’s very physically strong and will have the better striking. When he gets matched up with someone with takedowns and a top game then I might re-evaluate but for now I’ll keep backing him.

I realise that Liaudin has lost to Taylor before, but he’ll win on Saturday night. He’s a lot more savvy than he used to be and his ground skills will trouble Taylor, who was armbarred by an inferior grappler in Marcus David. Jess’ striking is also more than competent and I don’t see him getting blasted out on the feet. This is a very nice price at 3.0.

I just don’t rate Lambert to a huge extent and have been impressed by what I’ve seen of Cane thus far. He’s also the underdog. There’s not a lot more to my logic than that.

Other thoughts:

- Day at 3.75 against Bisping is quite tempting but I don’t want to back against my countryman. He beat Loiseau (albeit contentiously) and he is better than anyone that Bisping has ever beaten.

- Rivera at 3.00 could be a good bet. Kampmann has better skills but is small at the weight and coming back from a bad knee injury so it’s hard to know what state he’ll be in. I wouldn’t back this personally but felt it was worth pointing out.

SENGOKU:

Logan Clark - £50 - +280 - Bodog

Backing an American wrestler against Kazuo Misaki has been successful for me in the past. I successfully called Trigg’s victory over him at similar odds. I see no reason to change a winning formula. Clark is big, strong and capable of taking people down. My only fear is the crooked judging in Sengoku. I think it will go the distance and it will have to be outrageously dominating to beat Misaki in Japan. Anyone who saw the very first fight in Sengoku’s history will know about the suspect scoring. Still though - I have faith in Clark despite him being called Logan.

Summary:
Thiago Tavares / Roan Carneiro - win double - £100 @ 1.49 (Bet365)
Marcus Davis (2.0) / Jess Liaudin (3.0) / Luiz Cane (2.25) - win treble - £50 @ 13.50 (Bet365)
Logan Clark - £50 - +280 - Bodog

Current balance: £1,214.44
Potential Profit: £814
Potential Loss: £200