With Zuffa’s latest ill-titled PPV offering fast approaching, it’s time for a thorough analysis of the bouts on offer this weekend.  The card is one I expect to have, at best, limited appeal to the casual viewer.  Neither Penn nor Sherk, the putative headliners, is renown as a draw.  The only man on the card who has any drawing history, Tito Ortiz, is third from the top and fighting someone who appeals only to hardcore fans.  Make that “a few hardcore fans”.  There are a pile of guys even most hardcore fans haven’t heard of.  That said, there are some intriguing matchups in store. 

UFC Lightweight Title - BJ Penn (C) vs. Sean Sherk

Maybe I’m the only one, but I love this fight.  I’ve never been a big fan of BJ Penn.  I don’t like phenoms - they tend to be lazy, arrogant, and (mercifully) short-lived.  Sherk is more my speed - a genuine talent with a reputation for a tireless work ethic.  My rooting interest is compromised somewhat by Sherk’s steroid suspension, but who amongst us has not made lame excuses on behalf of someone we know only via television out of irrational fandom?  Nonetheless, Penn is a peerless fighter, my #1 pound-for-pound on the planet, and he’s going to take Sherk apart.

The only thing that’s ever really stopped BJ Penn is BJ Penn.  If he’s unmotivated, overweight, or out of shape, he can lose to inferior talents like Jens Pulver or significantly larger men like Georges St. Pierre.  But at 155lb Penn is in shape, and Penn finally seems interested in establishing a legacy commensurate with his ability.  It’s no great reach to say that Sherk’s best shot is to make this a long, slow fight.  Penn’s been tested in long bouts, and failed most of those tests, while Sherk is renowned for his conditioning.  The question, of course, is how will he accomplish such a thing?  Sherk does most of his damage from a top position, and better wrestlers than he (Matt Hughes and St. Pierre, for example) have failed to take down Penn.  Sherk’s standup is underrated, but Penn’s gone toe to toe with St. Pierre and Lyoto Machida.  And of course there’s  the fact that Penn has an outstanding guard and an excellent submission game, neither of which can be said of Sherk.  It won’t be a long fight.  Something very similar to the Stevenson bout, though probably without the Hostel-level head wound, is a likely result.

The downside to this, of course, is that if (when) Penn beats Sherk, who can take the belt from him?  Sherk is demonstrably better, in my opinion, than any of the other available challengers.  Much like Anderson Silva at 185, Penn may find himself in a Bum of the Month situation, not for lack of talented opponents, but simply due to the talent gap between himself and the Kenny Florians and Tyson Griffins of the world.

Wanderlei Silva vs Keith Jardine

Remember when just the name ”Wanderlei Silva” made you think there was a good chance someone was going to get killed?  Unfortunately, Silva’s lost his last three fights, two by knockout, and hasn’t beaten a top opponent in three years.  Three.  Years. 

Three years ago, Keith Jardine was taking apart Kerry Schall in the finale of The Ultimate Fighter’ssecond season.  No one outside his immediate family thought “here’s a guy who could be a top contender at 205″, but here he is.  In the muddled world of a post-Liddell lightheavyweight division, a man who’s lost to Stephan Bonnar and Houston Alexander can legitimately claim to be no worse than #2 in line for a title shot. 

If Silva doesn’t blow out Jardine in the opening minutes, a la the Jardine/Alexander bout, I expect he’ll drop his fourth consecutive bout, throwing a further pall over a proposed Silva/Liddell rematch.  Jardine has three things Silva has trouble with - a brain, a chin, and actual defensive skills.  He’ll also enjoy a size advantage, which has always given Silva trouble.  Jardine by decision.

Goran Reljic vs Wilson Gouveia

I’ll be honest.  I know precisely zero about Reljic that can’t be learned via Sherdog.com or a (really, really awful) Youtube clip.  He’s 7-0, with good size (6′ 3″, listed at 222lbs) for a light heavyweight.  But going 7-0 in the Eastern European MMA scene is like being a 7-0 boxer in the Iowa club scene.  You might be good, but how could anyone tell?  Precisely one of those opponents has a winning record, the 8-5 Petr Kelner.  Who?  Exactly.  And that Youtube clip says he didn’t exactly dominate the (no doubt rugged) purple belt division of the last Bristol BJJ tournament.  He may look good for a round against the slow-starting Gouveia, but I expect Gouveia’s going to make him look stupid by the second. 

Tito Ortiz vs Lyoto Machida

Much like the main event, I expect this is a fight I look forward to much more than most fans.  Machida’s been stuck with the “boring” tag for daring to have a defensive skill, while Ortiz’s star is fading fast.  Both men are still top 10 caliber fighters, though (assuming Ortiz is healthy), and Machida has a unique style that I find refreshing in the increasingly cookie cutter world of MMA.

Part of the reason Machida’s been dubbed boring is that he isn’t a finisher; seven of his twelve wins are decisions, and some of those opponents are also-rans like Sam Hoger and David Heath.  He’s not a one-punch guy like Chuck Liddell and he doesn’t throw a particularly high volume of strikes.  He’s got a submission game, but it’s nothing special.  In other words, Ortix will have every opportunity to stay in this fight.

Ortiz, though, isn’t much of a finisher, either.  His game isn’t a mystery to anyone at this point; if you’re reading this, you know how Ortiz fights.  If he can control the fight from the outset, he can get a stoppage or a decision, but he doesn’t have the explosive offense that can get him out of a hole if he ends up behind.  Machida will take him apart standing (and not get a scratch doing it, in all likelihood), so the whole fight comes down to Machida’s takedown defense.  If he can stop Ortiz’s shot for two rounds, or at least minimize the time he spends on the bottom, he’ll win the fight. 

The closest comparison I see is the Ortiz/Belfort fight, a close decision for Ortiz.  This Ortiz is a little older, a little slower, a little more beat up.  Machida is more focused and, I believe, better conditioned than Belfort was.  That should be the difference between a 29-28 decision for Ortiz then and 30-27 for Machida on Saturday.

Thiago Silva vs Antonio Mendes

Mendes is another guy I’m not familiar with.  His 14-2 record has a couple of respectable (if obscure) opponents, so I’ve a little more faith in him than the untested Reljic, but Silva’s been a wrecking machine in his brief UFC career and has only gone the distance once in his undefeated MMA career.  I hate (hate, hate) picking in ignorance, but when forced to do so, I prefer the known quantity.  Silva by stoppage in the second.

Rousimar Palhares vs Ivan Salaverry

Again with the guys I don’t know.  Palhares’ 7-1 record includes wins over Daniel Acacio and Flavio Moura, either of whom is as good as anyone Salaverry ever beat.  Or as good as Salaverry himself, come to that.  If “Octagon jitters” don’t get to him, I like Palhares here.  Root for him, folks, if only because Zuffa desperately needs new blood in the 185lb division.  Both men are primarily submission artists, so you can expect a ground battle.  I, for one, am thankful this is in front of a Las Vegas crowd instead of, say, Columbus, where they’d shit all over it regardless of the skill level shown. 

Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou vs Kazuhiro Nakamura

Sokoudjou makes me question my “no nicknames” policy - African Assassin is so much easier to spell.  He’s enormous for 205, ridiculously strong, trains with a top camp, and he’s already KO’d two top 10 caliber light heavyweights in his six fight career.  Anything other than his overwhelming the game but undersized Nakamura would absolutely stun me.

Rich Clementi vs Terry Etim 

My memory for Etim is fuzzy, but I don’t recall being all that impressed with his win over Grice.  Come to think of it, though, I don’t recall being all that impressed with any of Clementi’s bouts.  If you put a gun to my head (or stick me in front of a keyboard with some free time) and made me pick, I’d prefer Clementi’s experience over Etim’s Britishness.

Jon Koppenhaver vs Yoshiyuki Yoshida

Koppenhaver is bad.  He is not good.  If you were to make a list of all the fighters in MMA who were actually good at it, Koppenhaver would not be on that list.  A guy who beat Akira Kikuchi cannot possibly lose to such an opponent, can he?  Please, Yoshida-san, for the sake of all Japanese MMA fighters trying to retain their dignity on the international stage and all of us who don’t want to believe that GCM has a thinner talent pool than TUF, please destroy Jon Koppenhaver in short order.  Domo arigato.

Dong-Hyun Kim vs Jason Tan

If I’m not mistaken, Kim is the first Korean to compete in the UFC.  I’m blown away by the international flavor of this card, especially considering it’s in Vegas.  Kim won’t have access to the head stomps he tore up Hidehiko Hasegawa with, and a replay of the suplex seems pretty unlikely.  The rest of Kim’s offense - the rest of Kim’s game, aside from his takedown defense - is pretty unimpressive.  Still, he’s got more experience and has had a higher overall level of opposition than Jason Tan.  Tan appears stronger and has actually fought in the UFC before while Kim has no cage (Octagon-shaped or otherwise) experience.  This is a huge step up in stage, if not competition, for Kim.  If the stage itself doesn’t intimidate him, I expect him to overwhelm Tan with sheer volume of offense.

Shane Carwin vs Christian Wellisch

Wasn’t Carwin supposed to be in YAMMA, or am I confusing my unknown undefeated heavyweights again?  Carwin’s 8-0, his most recent victory being a first round stoppage of Sherman Pendergarst.  He’s never been deeper than 2:11 into a fight.  The former DII national wrestling champ has the look, background, and highlight reel of a poor man’s Mark Coleman, including some Thomas Ramirez-level opposition.  Still, there are probably plenty of 8-0 would-be prospects who can’t say they’ve got two opponents with double digit victory totals, and in the heavyweight ranks a promoter can’t be too picky. 

Wellisch, of course, is a UFC vet, and he’s won two out of three in the Octagon.  He’s a passable heavyweight with a decent submission game, but he got outwrestled by Cheick Kongo, so he isn’t setting the world on fire, either.  There aren’t very many heavyweights who are actually good on their backs, where Wellisch looks to spend the bulk of his Saturday, and I’ve seen no evidence he’s amongst those ranks.  Expect him to get pounded out in short order.