We return! After a week off because of the lack of places offering odds on Shooto and neither of us fancying any of the De La Hoya markets, we are back. WILL I ACTUALLY GO BROKE THIS WEEK?

Discussed are DREAM 3 and the weekend’s boxing. No place seems interested in offering Cage Rage odds.

Last Week

Farrow
One winner - £84.50
One loser - (£100)
Total profit / loss = (£15.50)

Starting balance - £1,043.50
Balance carried forward - £1028.00

I stand by Calvancanti. It was an unexpected loss but the bookies must have known something was up because the line was very smartly constructed, with Calvancanti being just good enough value to draw some money in on him. We’re trying to beat the bookies here but most of the time they beat you. His knee didn’t look right and they had the insider info there.

However, I should have given them more of a beating on Tamura. Their line was just plain wrong and the bookies are lucky they weren’t taken for more.

Really, my lesson from this week is to not spend over half your money trying to cover a loss made from making silly bets last week, especially when one of your “speculative” tips came in and would have made you a truckload of money. OK, it’s not my lesson but it’s something we should all learn from.

Iain

No Winners
One Loser - (£500)
Total profit / loss = (£500)

Starting balance - £850
Balance carried forward - £350

I gambled big on JZ and it didn’t pay off. Maybe I panicked too much after my initial week of losses and I certainly am again now. If I had been fully aware of JZ’s knee injury then I perhaps would have gone easier or gone elsewhere (I actually backed Kin at very good odds which shows I am not completely inept) but Aoki fought a better fight than I thought him capable of.

This Week:

Farrow

There was little to back last week but this week we have boxing and we have some more DREAM. I’d love to be on Cage Rage but, alas, I cannot find any.

JUNIOR WITTER vs. Timothy Bradley - Ladbrokes - Rounds 7-9 - £30 @ 5.5 (+450)

Junior Witter has beaten better than Tim Bradley but his strange style means he takes some time to warm up. I fancy Witter for a knockout in the second half of the fight so this is where Farrow’s innate cheapskateness kicks in to find the best value. Three bets of £10 would have netted me a potential £130 less the two lost stakes so £110 in total. However, the round group markets can be awfully generous and Ladbrokes’ in particular gave me this humdinger. This bet potentially wins me £165 but loses me £30. I’m all about the value, my friends.

BU KYUNG JUNG vs. Daisuke Nakamura - Sportsbook - £25 @ Evens (2.0)

Very difficult fight this one. Nakamura is 13-9 but he’s experienced and has savvy. Bu Kyung Jung was impressive in two fights against very good fighters but has virtually no experience. The bookies are coming down on the side of Jung, except Sportsbook who are going the other way. I’m with Jung on this one and, eventhough he’s giving up weight and experience, I’m going to stick with him.

Summary:

WITTER (WIN IN ROUNDS 7-9) - £30 @ 5.5 on Ladbrokes
JUNG - £25 @ EV on Sportsbook

Current Balance - £1,028.00
Potential profit - £215.00
Potential loss - (£55.00)

Iain

I clearly know nothing. Just read Farrow’s and be done with it.

I don’t actually think there’s a lot of value around this weekend, esepcially for someone like me who has such little money that betting a percentage of my pot on a favourite just isn’t going to be worth it.

Caul Uno stands out as value at +305 against Ishida. He’s tough to beat and probably has a more well-rounded game than his opponent who seems happy to just out-wrestle people, albeit in glorious fashion. I can’t really pick against Ishida though just because he’s looked so good in the past few months.

The Hansen-Alvarez line is a close one and a potential money maker. Hansen is the smaller man and could be be competing at 145 whereas Alvarez has dropped from welterweight to lightweight. I think this will largely be contested on the feet and so the Philadelphia native at +158 is somewhat tempting. However then I think back to how Hansen anhialated Boku in their last fight and the doubts creep in. When you’re on a losing streak it’s easy to talk yourself out of bets you would once have taken.

I tried this last week and it didn’t work, but here we go again. I’m going big on a favourite with little regards for the consequences. My lock for this event would be Kawajiri. Buscape was getting controlled by Miyata in the first round and a better ground and pounder would have finished him. Step forward Tatsuya Kawajiri.

He’s the favourite to win the tournament and has been given one of the easier pairings. I don’t see stylistically how he will be troubled in this fight as he’s a much better striker with more than competent submission defence which is Buscape’s only advantage. He’s at -360 with 5Dimes (compared to -475 with others) and that is worth £250 of anyone’s money. I realise this is a foolish bet given my situation and the relattive risk/reward, but I;m not going to cop out at this stage and say “no bet this week” waiting for Fedor to be priced at +750. No. Fortune favours the brave. I have complete faith that I will be waking up almost £70 pounds richer on Sunday afternoon.

(oh please God let him win)

SUMMARY

KAWAJIRI to beat Buscape, £250 @ -360 with 5Dimes

Current balance - £350
Potential profit - £69.44
Potential loss - (£250)