Total-MMA.com

I had the idea of doing a betting column on this site and finally decided to actually put it into practice.

The concept is pretty simple. Two of us each start with the proverbial thousand nicker, as Farrow is a cockney, (£1,000 to those not familiar) and each week we select a couple of bets that seem like value to us and see how it goes. The bets can relate to MMA, Boxing, K-1 or anything of that ilk. So here we go with week one…

Iain

Whilst I’m far from the mindset that betting on favourites is pointless, this week I have had my eye turned by a few underdogs.

KALIB STARNES vs. Nate Quarry - Totesport - 13/5 (+260, 3.6)

This just strikes me as very good value for a fight involving Nate Quarry. He’s not long been back from a very serious injury and he was never a world class fighter before that. Starnes’ heart has been questioned but his cut sustained against Belcher was horrific and in terms of pure talent I would rank him higher of the two. Whilst this fight doesn’t intrigue me on any other level I’ll be paying close attention to this potentially poor piece of oddsmaking. This would be my banker of the week.

MARK BOCEK vs. Mac Danzig - Pinnacle Sports +401 (4/1, 5.01)

This is a fight that has been out together for Danzig to win. It’s his big-show lightweight debut and they’ve matched him up against a guy with a poor UFC record who has nowhere near as much experience. This will only be a small stake bet but Bocek’s BJJ is to the level that an upset is not unfathomable especially with Danzig not being particularly outstanding at any one discipline himself. I’m not saying the Canadian will win, but at these odds he is worth a flutter.

Matt Serra vs. Georges St. Pierre TO GO THE DISTANCE - Totesport, 10/3 (+330, 4.33)

The fight itself is not worth touching in my mind, despite what Farrow may tell you. I think Serra is a bad style match for GSP but also that Pierre is good enough to win the fight. I see it going a similar way to the second St. Pierre - Penn fight where he fights out a hardfought decision and reclaims the welterweight belt.

However instead of betting on him to win, this appeals to me more as it also encompasses the possibility of a Serra decision and a draw.

The bets in full.

STARNES - £75 @ 13/5 on Totesport
BOCEK - £25.00 @ +401 on Pinnacle Sports
SERRA/GSP TO GO THE DISTANCE - £50 @ 10/3 on Totesport

Current Balance - £1,000.00
Potential loss - £150.00
Potential profit - £461.92

Farrow
MATT SERRA vs. Georges St Pierre - Pinnacle Sports - +431 (5.31)

INSANE ODDS - Let’s face it, we all want to be on the value side of a bet. Matt Serra looks ludicrous value on Pinnacle at 5.31. For me, Serra still has the potential to knock GSP out and he’s comfortable wherever the fight goes, as such it seems insane that in a five round fight with his heavy hands, he’s that far out. Amazingly, that price has come in by 1% in the past few days. It’s a price to entice the punters in and entice me it has. I’m going to put £10 down on the wee man.

RYAN RHODES vs. Gary Woolcombe - BlueSq - 1.5 (-200)

REASONABLE VALUE - Ryan Rhodes always looked a little small to be a middleweight. He’s been around the block a bit at that weight and never quite got to the level of former stablemate and good friend, “Prince” Naseem Hamed. He has that awkward style that all of the Ingle trained fighters have and he’s up against a young, once-defeated Gary Woolcombe. Rhodes is still giving up height for the weight and Woolcombe is a good opponent but I can’t help but think the experience will tell so I’m going to stake £7.50 on him with BlueSq.

JOE CALZAGHE vs. Bernard Hopkins - Betfair - 2.06 (+106) - ROUND BETTING MARKET

VALUE - Let’s face it, this bout doesn’t look like anything other than going the full 12 rounds. Hopkins has never been stopped and his worst loss came by losing a 116-112 decision to Roy Jones Jr in 1993. Calzaghe has 32 knockouts but there is a distinct lack of world class in that list. Therefore, we have to look at the decision market. Something I love about Betfair is their brilliant round betting market, which always allows you to squeeze a little more value out of a bet. I’m gonna squeeze that extra value out by putting £10 on the whinging taff at 2.06, which is a smidge higher than the 2.00 you’d get on the straight decision market and way higher than you’d get on a decision elsewhere.

The bets in full.

SERRA - £100 @ 5.31 on Pinnacle Sports
RHODES - £75.00 @ 1.5 on BlueSq
CALZAGHE on points - £100 @ 2.06 on Betfair

Current Balance - £1,000.00
Potential loss - £270.50
Potential profit - £570.45

Remember, if you’re going to gamble, be aware of certain hoops these sites will make you jump through so they don’t get scammed.

We’ll be back midway through next week to assess how it went and with NEW recommendations for the following weekend.