by Kendall Shields

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This weekend’s DREAM 1 event is really our first look at the new reality of Japanese MMA. The entertaining and competitive March 5 World Victory Road Sengoku card (match-by-match coverage here, videos of most matches here) gave us Hidehiko Yoshida, Takanori Gomi, Josh Barnett, Kazuyuki Fujita, and Kazuo Misaki, all of whom are significant fighters and draws — and it was a great show — but DREAM is clearly on a different level. Between their concentration of promising young talent and proven draws on the one hand, and their network TV slot with TBS on the other, FEG’s HERO’S replacement looks set to be the premiere power in Japanese MMA. The March 15 debut show offers a mix of truly ridiculous mismatches and competitive Lightweight Grand Prix tournament bouts. If you’re a fan of Japanese MMA, you probably see the appeal of both kinds of contests.

Fight Opinion has posted the order of fights as it stands right now, although with almost two full days still before the first bell rings, that’s more than enough time for all of this to change. Note too that, as was the case with the HERO’s shows, the TBS broadcast will only be two hours long, so unless you’ve got a source for South Korean PPV, some of these bouts could be hard to come by. That said, here’s how it looks for DREAM 1:

1. Minowaman vs. TBA

Minowaman (Ikuhisa “The Punk” Minowa, in another life) is a strange cat. Explore his Google-translated blog here. You’ll be glad you did. Unfortunately, his blog contains no more indication of who he’ll be fighting than any other source, so it is truly a mystery. Minowa, though, is endlessly entertaining regardless of opponent, so it’s hard to imagine the opening bout being anything less than required viewing.

2. Hayato Sakurai vs. Hidetaka Monma

Hayato Sakurai, whose last fight was a somewhat listless decision win over Hidehiko Hasegawa at Yarennoka (watch it here and here), shouldn’t have as much trouble with Pancrase, GCM Cage Force and DEEP-veteran Hidetaka Monma. Monma’s highest profile match to date was his quick TKO loss to JZ Calvancante in HERO’s almost two years ago — no shame in a loss to JZ, obviously, but Monma is a B-level fighter who Sakurai should be able to finish, and maybe finish early.

3. LGP R1: Kotetsu Boku vs. Joachim Hansen

Kotetsu Boku is another GCM Cage Force fighter in the mix here, as he faces Joachim Hansen in the first LWGP match. There is actually a decent amount of Boku available online, as you can see in this Total MMA Forum thread. Boku grinds out decision wins; Hansen finishes fights, sometimes dramatically, which is perhaps the likeliest outcome here.

4. LGP R1: Kazuyuki Miyata vs. Luiz Buscape

Poor Kazuyuki Miyata. Maybe Miyata is starting to figure things out (a little?), but it’s hard to imagine Luiz Buscape not catching him with something, sooner or later, isn’t it?

5. LGP R1: Katsuhiko Nagata vs. Artur Oumakhanov

Another Olympic wrestler with mixed results so far in MMA, Nagata has looked an awful lot better than Miyata, on the whole. Oumakhanov is not a fighter I know much of anything about — this suggests that I really need to do a better job of keeping up on these Cage Force shows. Clearly they offer the stars of tomorrow . . . TODAY.

6. LGP R1: Mitsuhiro Ishida vs. Jung Bu-Kyung

Ishida’s razor-thin decision win over Gil Melendez at Yarennoka was one of the best fights of 2007, and Jung Bu-Kyung’s mma debut against Shinya Aoki on that same card was no less impressive a showing. Ishida proved he belonged near the top of the division by hanging with and besting the world-class Melendez, while the Olympic medalist judoka Kyung looked about as promising as you can in a first pro match against top opposition. Kyung coming out and pulling guard against Aoki, nearly catching him not once but twice with armbars from the guard is simply an incredible feat in the man’s first round of professional mma. This is a fight Ishida should win, given his enormous edge in experience in this sport, but Kyung is a dangerous opponent — or so it seems, one fight into his mma career.

7. Mirko Cro Cop vs. Tatsuya Mizuno

Because Cro Cop lost his way (also possibly his performance enhancing drugs?) in the UFC, and because the Japanese, for whatever reason, never tire of seeing Mirko head-kick overmatched Japanese opponents, we have this match — in which Mirko Cro Cop will headkick an overmatched Japanese opponent. And it will be kind of cool.

8. LGP R1: Andre Dida vs. Eddie Alvarez

Not that I am a betting man, but Dida (-155) is the favourite here over Alvarez (+125), which I guess you can see. The safest bet, though, is that this bout will feature punches, lots and lots of punches.

9. LGP R1: Tatsuya Kawajiri vs. Black Mamba

Kawajiri is a beast, a monster, as evidenced by this pretty awesome highlight video. It is utterly inconceivable that he would lose to Kultar Gill, whose only wins of any note at all have come against the awesome but tiny Hideo Tokoro. This shouldn’t last much longer than Cro Cop vs. Whoever.

10. LGP R1: Shinya Aoki vs. JZ Calvancante

This is the match we wanted New Year’s Eve, but better late than never. Aoki’s ludicrous submission skills have been the focus of more internet buzz over the last few years than JZ’s more well-rounded game, but JZ has got to be considered the favourite here given his incredible run through — well, through everyone HERO’s put in front of him, and everyone, inf fact, he’s faced thus far in his career with the lone exception of Joachim Hansen. This is somewhat inexplicable, but it took JZ’s first-round TKO of Shaolin Ribiero to really open my eyes as to what kind of talent Calvancante really is. Everyone expected Aoki to pull off a quick sub in his Yarennoka match against Jung Bu-Kyung — when it turned out there was nothing there, Aoki had to rely on his top game and grind out a decision. That doesn’t seem likely against JZ. Either Aoki catches JZ with another one of his highlight-real armlocks or chokes quick, or he’s in serious trouble. Aoki has only been knocked out once before in his five-year career, but it’s not hard to imagine it happening here.

It will be difficult for DREAM 1 to match the kind of quality we saw in WVR’s Sengoku just a week ago, but Aoki/JZ, along with the rest of the Lightweight Grand Prix matches, mean that it might not be all that far off, either.