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By Lee Casebolt  

2007 was The Year of the Upset in MMA, as evidenced by such unlikely happenings as Matt Serra, World Welterweight Champion, and Randy Couture, three time World Heavyweight Champion.  No one gave Serra a realistic chance of defeating the younger, larger, stronger, and generally better skilled Georges St. Pierre.  Similarly, the enormous Tim Sylvia was popularly thought to be too much for an aging Randy Couture who had moved to light heavyweight, after all, specifically to avoid 270+lb monsters cutting down to the 265 limit.

 This year’s upcoming title fights are, on paper, much more balanced encounters than those two contests, so if you think anyone really knows how they’re going to go down, you’re insane.  Which is not to say I (and thousands of others) will not make our predictions, based on either sound logic and keen observation or raw emotion and pure guesswork; it’s the internet, and that’s what it’s for.  For you, the fan, though, the important question at this juncture is not “Who’s going to win?” but “Why should I care?”  A belt is just a shiny piece of metal riveted to a leather strap.  In and of itself, it means nothing with regard to the quality or importance of a fight.  Today we’ll take a look at the upcoming title bouts which have been announced, and go over why they should be both good fights and significant fights. 

B.J. Penn vs. Sean Sherk – UFC Lightweight Title Odds are, if you’re reading this, you just saw Penn open up Joe Stevenson like he unzipped the man’s head.  In doing so, he won the UFC belt which Sherk gave up due to a failed drug test.  Now, the champ whose never defended a belt meets the man who never lost it to determine the true lightweight champion of the world.What’s that?  “True” lightweight champion of the world?  What about Gomi, or Hansen, or Ishida?  The fact of the matter is that ZUFFA is the only company running a global MMA organization with universally recognized rules.  It is, therefore, the only body capable of sanctioning a legitimate world title.  One may legitimately argue whether either Penn or Sherk is truly the top individual fighter in the division (hint – B.J. is), but they are the fighters competing in the most important organization in MMA.  Gomi, Hansen, Ishida, and the rest will eventually come to them, they don’t have to go to Japan.

Sean Sherk is not a popular fighter.  He is probably the second least popular UFC champion of the last five years, trailing only the perpetually booed Tim Sylvia, about whom more later.  Sherk is dull.  Sherk just holds people down.  Sherk doesn’t finish.  Sherk also doesn’t lose.  32-2-1, with his only two losses coming at the hands of Matt Hughes and Georges St. Pierre, both elite (and enormous) welterweights.  His short lightweight career has involved total dominations of Hermes Franca and Kenny Florian.  Neither man could get out from under the smothering Sherk, whose unrelenting pressure kept both on their backs and on the defensive for twenty-five minutes.  It may not have been thrilling, but it was impressive.

 “Impressive” is an understatement when it comes to B. J. Penn.  The natural lightweight won a welterweight title from the incomparable Matt Hughes, beat two Gracies at middleweight, and took Lyoto Machida to a decision in what amounted to a heavyweight bout.  At lightweight, he’s blitzed Caol Uno, crushed Jens Pulver, and dominated Stevenson.  His deceptively poor record of 12-4-1 is devoid of the wealth of tomato can opponents which fill Sherk’s; virtually every one of Penn’s opponents was a top ten competitor at the time of their bout.  Two of his losses, of course, are to the same men who beat Sherk in Matt Hughes and GSP.  But B.J. is like the high school genius who aces all his tests but won’t do his homework, and consequently gets “C”s.  His limitless talent has been held hostage by a questionable work ethic to his (and our) detriment.  It’s an easy excuse for him, just as it is for that high school kid.  He could get A’s, if he wanted to. 

Fighters are sometimes referred to as mirror images of each other.  Penn and Sherk are more like funhouse mirror images of each other.  Sherk is characterized by relentless pressure, an interminable gas tank, and limited finishing skills.  Penn is a consummate finisher, a BJJ wunderkind, and a man who’s traditionally preferred a second helping to the second round.  The fight, as so many Penn fights do, will come down to one question – how badly does Penn want to win?  He has, by all reports, turned into a training maniac.  His parting shot to Sherk (“You’re dead”) is promising for those of us who are tired of seeing one of the great MMA talents of our time waste his potential.  Sherk will be in shape and ready to fight for twenty five minutes.  There’s no question about that.  If B.J. is in that kind of condition, it won’t go remotely that long.  He has phenomenal takedown defense, fast hands, and the best jujitsu in the game, but he’s always had that.  Now, B.J. appears to be motivated.  More than that, he looks angry.  He, too, seems to be tired of wondering “what if”, and if that’s the case, no one is taking that belt from him for a long, long time.

Frank Shamrock vs. Cung Le – Strikeforce Middleweight Title 

If you live in San Jose, feel free to skip this section.

 This is the only fight you’ll read about here that can’t be termed a World title fight.  Whatever Strikeforce may call their belt, it’s more like a California state title, or a Bay Area regional title.  The belt inflation of MMA puts boxing and pro wrestling to shame; every two-bit promoter on the planet feels the need to have an alleged “world title” and it’s just embarrassing.  Which is not to say that Strikeforce is a two-bit promoter.  The company has been adept at putting together quality talent without overstepping their bounds either financially or geographically.  This bout is a prime example; Shamrock and Le are regional heroes and huge draws in the San Jose area.  Putting them together in a main event is a virtually guaranteed sellout in that city.   

That’s why promoters care.  Why do you care?  Because it’s going to be an electrifying fight.Frank Shamrock isn’t what he was.  At one time he was the best submission wrestler and the best MMA fighter on the planet.  That was before his first retirement.  He’s a fraction of that, due to age and injury and the inevitable progress of the sport.  As was said of Michael Jordan on his third tour of the NBA, though, half a Frank Shamrock is worth two of most everybody else.  He’s turned himself into a more than competent kickboxer capable of getting the better of power punchers like Phil Baroni.  He can still handle himself on the ground as well as anyone; he fearlessly gave away position to Renzo Gracie in typical Shamrock style without ever being in danger.  

If he’s got a weakness, it’s that he has no defensive wrestling skills to speak of, though that may be attributed to his absence of fear of going to the ground in any position against any opponent.   Shamrock has supreme confidence in his ground game, both offensively and defensively, and is more than happy to devote his full attention in the standup game to his kickboxing rather than distract from that by worrying about takedowns.

Cung Le is the closest thing in MMA to a Hong Kong action movie.  No one in the sport has the array of kicks he possesses.  His san shou background presents a very different kickboxing challenge than the typical Muay Thai derived MMA fighter usually sees.  He offers more spinning kicks, both back kicks and heel kicks, and is good enough that those are legitimate weapons rather than mere antics.  His side kick is as good a body blow as there is in the middleweight division, and again it’s a tool most MMA fighters just don’t see enough to have a real defense for.  

Naturally, against a kickboxer like Le, a submission master like Shamrock would want to take it to the ground.  Good luck.  Unlike a lot of K-1, boxing, or Muay Thai fighters making the transition to MMA, the vast majority of Le’s career has been about seamlessly integrating striking and throwing skills.  Consequently, he has not only good wrestling, but MMA-ready wrestling.  Unlike a lot of wrestlers-turned-fighters, he already knows how to execute or defend a takedown in combination with his striking or striking defense.  One of Shamrock’s great strengths has always been how smoothly he transitions from one aspect of the fight to another – he doesn’t have a “kickboxing mode” and a “grappling mode”, just a “fighting mode”.  Le is the same. Ultimately, I suspect Le’s better striking and better or at least even wrestling, and he’s proven smart enough to avoid the ground even against lesser opponents.  He won’t suddenly follow a Frank Shamrock to the ground if he can avoid it, and I believe he can.  Le is, in my mind, the favorite here, but Shamrock’s fully capable of doing something shocking in the middle of a fight, especially a fight he thinks he’s losing. This won’t be a bout with significant implications for world rankings, just a high action encounter between two skilled, aggressive competitors.  Good enough for me.

Next week – Silva vs. Henderson, St. Pierre vs. Serra, and Sylvia vs. Nogueira